CONCORD, N.H. — Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s expected entrance Monday into the 2016 presidential sweepstakes further expands the Republican field, heightening the sense among party analysts that they’ll have to go through several “primaries within the primary” before a winner can be crowned.
The Republican lineup includes fiscal, social and military conservatives, libertarians and tea partyers, establishment figures and anti-Washington types.
Long-in-the-tooth politicos are running next to fresh-faced newcomers with no experience in elected office. Baby boomers are taking on Generation Xers. Red state Southerners match up against blue state Northeasterners and swing state Rust Belters. And then there’s iconoclastic Donald Trump.
For his part, Mr. Walker, who built his national reputation off showdowns with public employee unions, has been making overtures to the more conservative elements of the party in the runup to his announcement Monday.
He moved right on immigration, and made overtures to religious and social conservatives — first by calling for a constitutional amendment allowing states to define marriage as being between one man and one woman in response to the Supreme Court ruling in favor of same-sex marriage, and then by promising to sign a 20-week abortion ban in his home state.
He also has embraced ethanol subsidies, a major beneficiary of which is Iowa, host of the caucuses that sound the starting gun in the nomination race.
Taken together, the moves have helped this son of a Baptist minister to distance him from the more moderate messages being espoused by some of his rivals — including former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who is expected to enter the race July 21.
Mr. Walker enters the race running second to Mr. Bush in the RealClearPolitics averages both of national polls and in New Hampshire, which holds the first-in-the-nation primary and is considered the key early test.
“There is an opportunity if they play it right to coalesce the social right and center right around him,” said Tom Rath, a longtime New Hampshire-based GOP strategist. “People are intrigued by the idea of Walker winning Iowa, coming in here and finishing either first or strong enough to coalesce the center-right around him and becoming the leading social conservative heading into South Carolina. That is a pretty good path for him.”
But Mr. Walker’s tilt to the right could put him on a crash course with the likes of Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who are fighting for social conservative territory. And it could pose problems for him in New Hampshire.
“Look, New Hampshire voters are conservative, but we are not as socially conservative as Iowa voters. We are much more fiscally conservative. We don’t like ethanol subsidies, regardless of their party. We don’t like any subsidies, period,” said Steve Duprey, a New Hampshire Republican National Committee member.
“But, that said, his challenge is that he has to be careful that you don’t go so far to the right on social issues — and he has started to get some flak suggesting he has altered his positions or whatever — that you don’t come out of New Hampshire with that kind of reinforcing victory or good placement,” he said.
Others questioned the wisdom of Mr. Walker’s approach.
“The problem as I see it, strategically, is if he has decided he is going to run a right-wing campaign or certainly a right-of-center campaign, I am not sure there are enough votes in that lane,” said Fergus Cullen, the former head of the New Hampshire GOP. “I think Cruz out-Walkers Walker.”
At an event in Waukesha, Wisconsin, Monday, Mr. Walker would become the 15th declared major candidate to enter the race.
From there he will travel to Nevada and South Carolina before hitting the ground in New Hampshire on Thursday.
Then he will spend three days traveling by Winnebago through Iowa, where his neighboring-state status makes him a formidable candidate and polls show him running first.
History, though, shows that things can change fast, including here in New Hampshire.
At this point in the last presidential race, then-Rep. Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota was running second to Mitt Romney in the Granite State. But Mrs. Bachmann never even made it that far, withdrawing after a disastrous showing in Iowa.
Those who are down right now, meanwhile, have reason to remain hopeful. In 2007, six months out from the first caucuses and primaries, Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign was imploding, and he slashed his staff from about more than 100 to about 20.
He settled on a strategy of ignoring Iowa and focusing on New Hampshire, conducting more than 100 town halls between early July and the primary. He would go on to win New Hampshire and, eventually, the GOP nomination.
Mr. Duprey, who ran Mr. McCain’s New Hampshire operation, said the McCain mantle is “wide open” this time for a candidate to put an intense focus here.
“I would jump on it like white on rice, and none of this ’two town hall meetings a day has been a vigorous day’,” Mr. Duprey said, suggesting a candidate who can do three or four a day would see the benefits.
“I am convinced that, with 16 candidates, that he or she that works the hardest earliest will win or do very well,” he said. “Late will not matter.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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