GOP presidential candidates will need $50 million for primaries

It looks like $50 million will be the ante that Republican presidential candidates will have to prove they can raise in order to show viability in the primary contests, according to strategists and fundraisers, signaling the beginning of what is expected to be the most expensive nomination race in history.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee set the bar over the weekend. He told The Washington Times that he must be convinced that he can raise up to $50 million before he is willing to announce his candidacy.

Fundraisers said Mr. Huckabee’s estimate is about right, though the money can be divided among an official campaign and political action committees dedicated to backing the candidate.

“Put aside how it is raised, you have to be able to raise $50 million, in my opinion,” said Spencer Zwick, finance director for Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign. “You clearly have to be able to raise money in your primary account, but I think the super PAC can offset that in a big way.”

The $50 million tag shows just how much the costs of campaigns have ballooned.

Mr. Huckabee, who sought the 2008 nomination, raised $9 million heading into that year’s Iowa caucuses.

Three years later, preparing for his second presidential bid, Mr. Romney held a national call day in May 2011 to solicit pledges of support for his 2012 campaign and tallied $10.25 million in commitments in one day.

By the time of the Iowa caucuses in early 2012, Mr. Romney had raised more than $57 million and had nearly $20 million in cash on hand. The Restore Our Future super PAC supporting Mr. Romney, meanwhile, was sitting atop $23.5 million.

Bobbie Kilberg, a veteran Republican fundraiser, said she does not think a candidate needs $50 million heading into the race but that the eventual nominee might need to raise that sum before the nomination race is over.

“I think it is accurate that the price of admission through the caucuses and primary process may be approaching $50 million,” Ms. Kilberg said.

Others predict it will take closer to $100 million to survive the first four nomination contests, in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.

With such a crowded field, that could put the price tag for the entire Republican nomination contest well above $500 million.

Because there are only so many dollars to go around, the money chase could winnow down the Republican field.

“I believe it will take $25 to $50 million to get through Iowa, after which Iowa and New Hampshire results, as well as debate performances, will propel winners forward,” said Fred Malek, who served as national finance co-chairman of Mr. McCain’s 2008 campaign. “There will be heavy competition for donors, although I suspect many will donate to several candidates who they feel are worthy of the nomination. Thus, the more heated competition will be for those who will raise as well as give.”

The pressure to attract donors and fundraisers is already growing.

Analysts said it’s one reason why former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush announced that he is exploring a bid — putting pressure on others such as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. This week, Mr. Bush launched a leadership PAC called Right to Rise, which allows him to pay staff and cover the costs of traveling the nation, and a separate super PAC of the same name, which allows him to collect unlimited donations.

Mr. Bush planned to woo high-powered donors at a fundraiser in Greenwich on Wednesday.

Alice Stewart, a Huckabee aide, declined to spell out how her boss came to the conclusion that he needs $25 million to $50 million to take a serious crack at the nomination, though she did say they took into account the typical costs of running a presidential campaign, setting up a solid ground operation and running advertisements.

“Fundraising is a big part of the process if he decides to run,” Mrs. Stewart said.

Mr. Huckabee learned the hard way in 2008 that a candidate can go only so far with limited funds as his campaign struggled to stay afloat and compete financially with the campaigns of Mr. Romney and Mr. McCain.

Running and failing also can be costly.

The latest campaign finance filings show that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich still has more than $4 million in debt from his failed 2012 presidential bid.

“Presidential politics is expensive. We all know that, and it is only getting more expensive,” said Hogan Gidley, a Republican strategist who has worked for Mr. Huckabee and for former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, another possible 2016 contender.

Mr. Gidley recalled the shock of being told that it would cost $7 million to run the Senate campaign of Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina in 2008. By contrast, the race last year for that same seat cost a total of more than $100 million.

“It is going up exponentially,” Mr. Gidley said. “You can have the best ideas, the best candidate, but you have to have a lot of money get those ideas out there.”