The U.S. Senate race in California next year could be the first in modern state history with no Republican candidate, but that’s not necessarily ideal for Democrats.
The contest to succeed retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer, a Democrat, will be the first Senate election without an incumbent conducted under the top-two primary system approved in 2010. Under this system, all candidates run in a nonpartisan primary, and the two who receive the most votes face off in the general election regardless of party affiliation.
With Republicans comprising just 28 percent of the statewide electorate, there is a good chance that the top two candidates will be Democrats.
That could be a problem.
The California Democratic Party is increasingly divided between two camps: left-wing progressives and pro-business centrists. That rift would be further exposed in an all-Democrat election.
Given that the cost of the race is expected to hit a record-breaking $100 million, California Democrats could spend a fortune slinging mud at fellow Democrats rather than Republicans.
SEE ALSO: @ScottBrownCA: Parody Twitter handle says ex-senator seeks Barbara Boxer’s seat
Indeed, the best-case scenario for Democrats may be one in which a Republican squeaks onto the general election ballot. That would give the race a partisan cast that Democrats could win easily at a much lower cost.
Dan Schnur, a former Republican strategist who now heads the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at the University of Southern California, noted that the state’s business community spent millions of dollars this year backing centrist Democratic candidates in legislative races.
A Nov. 23 analysis by the Sacramento Bee found that seven of the 10 Democratic Assembly and Senate candidates running in open seats who were funded by pro-business, independent-expenditure committees won their races.
“The business community here over the last few years has gotten very good at recruiting and supporting economically centrist Democratic candidates in campaigns where Republicans are not able to be competitive,” Mr. Schnur said.
So far, Democrats on the short list to succeed Mrs. Boxer hail from the party’s progressive wing. Attorney General Kamala Harris announced last week that she would run and immediately picked up the endorsement of progressive heroine Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Democrat.
Other Democrats seen as top contenders include former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Reps. Xavier Becerra and Loretta Sanchez, and San Francisco billionaire Tom Steyer, who sunk an estimated $74 million into supporting a slate of 2014 Democratic Senate candidates in order to promote the climate-change issue.
“The business people are not wild about Harris or Villaraigosa. They’re terrified of Steyer,” Mr. Schnur said. “So finding a more pro-business Democrat like they have in legislative races is something they’re very likely to look into.”
Potential Republican contenders include Tom Del Beccaro, a former state party chairman who has announced that he is weighing a bid, and past gubernatorial candidates Neel Kashkari and Meg Whitman.
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who ran against Mrs. Boxer in 2010, is now a resident of Virginia and will not seek the Senate seat in California, her spokeswoman said.
Although Republicans inevitably enter the race as underdogs, they could turn the tables on Democrats. Some Republicans see a glimmer of hope if Mr. Steyer spends himself onto the November 2016 ballot.
If he defeats “credible” Democrats in the primary, “Voters in [general] won’t elect coal billionaire dilettante climate fraud,” Mr. Kashkari said on Twitter. “R wins.”
Another long-shot scenario: A large number of Democrats so crowd the field that none can get major traction and the only two Republicans in the race take the top two slots with modest primary shares.
Impossible? It happened in a 2012 U.S. House race, allowing Republican Gary Miller to claim the congressional seat in a heavily Democratic San Bernardino County district after defeating a fellow Republican.
“One thing for sure: If one and only one Republican makes this race, he or she is almost certain of a runoff slot,” political analyst Thomas Elias said in The Californian. “And if a slew of Democrats get in against two Republicans, both Republicans could advance to November, guaranteeing the GOP an improbable Senate seat for six years.”
Mrs. Boxer, 74, announced Jan. 8 that she would retire next year at the end of her fourth term, touching off a frenzy of speculation about California’s first U.S. Senate race in 24 years with no incumbent.
The only Senate race conducted under the top-two system was in 2012 with Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s re-election bid, in which she defeated Republican Elizabeth Emken. The 2016 race would be the first Senate contest under the top-two rules with no incumbent.
• Valerie Richardson can be reached at vrichardson@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.