White House: Odds still iffy for nuclear deal with Iran

The Obama administration said Monday that the prospects for a successful nuclear deal with Iran are “fifty-fifty at best,” despite reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators moved closer over the weekend to a two-phase agreement that would allow Tehran to ramp up its nuclear activities over time after an initial clamp-down.

While the latest talks carried on for a third straight day in Geneva Monday ahead of an end-of-March deadline for a framework agreement, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said Obama administration officials “continue to be realistic about the likelihood of success.”

Mr. Obama has repeatedly in recent months said the chances of a deal with Tehran are less than even, Mr. Earnest noted. “I think that continues to be a fair assessment of where things stand,” the spokesman said.

He added that in order for there to be a deal, “Iranian hardliners” must make a commitment that Tehran will not develop a nuclear weapon. “There are some in the Iranian regime who are reluctant to make that kind of commitment,” Mr. Earnest said.

His comments came after The Associated Press reported Monday that U.S. and Iranian negotiators are working on a deal that would limit Tehran’s nuclear program for at least a decade before providing it leeway over the remainder of the agreement — likely 20 years — to slowly ramp up activities that could be used to make weapons.

Citing anonymous officials from some of the nation’s participating in the six-party nuclear talks, the AP reported that the root of such a deal would be to reward Iran for good behavior over the final years of any agreement — gradually lifting constraints on its uranium enrichment program and slowly easing economic sanctions.

The U.S. and its allies have argued for years that Tehran is secretly trying to build a nuclear bomb, in violation of orders from U.N. Security Council. Iranian officials argue that their nuclear program is for purely peaceful and civilian purposes.

Accordng to Iran’s state-run Fars News Agency, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the weekend’s nuclear talks in Geneva were “serious, useful and constructive,” but that there is still a long way ahead before a final nuclear deal can be struck.