Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina help kick off the GOP’s primary calendar next year — and a different candidate is leading the early polls in each of them, signaling just how wide open the contest is.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, whose strength with evangelical Christian voters helped carry him to a win Iowa in 2008, has a narrow lead there. Meanwhile, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, the establishment favorite, has a small lead in New Hampshire, and Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina leads in his home state by a similarly narrow margin.
“Top tier? The morning line for these critical states points to a rough-and-tumble Republican nomination battle,” said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which released the polls in conjunction with NBC News.
Also striking is the absence of any of the freshest GOP faces, such as Sens. Marco Rubio, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, or Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who have been in the presidential conversation for years but who have yet to break through in those early states.
Still, the polling suggests there is no front-runner and signals openings for just about anyone.
In Iowa, Mr. Huckabee’s 17 percent among potential GOP caucus-goers narrowly edges Mr. Bush’s 16 percent and Mr. Walker’s 15 percent.
Mr. Bush leads the wide-open GOP field in New Hampshire with 18 percent, followed by Mr. Walker at 15 percent, Mr. Paul at 14 percent and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who was to be in the Granite State for several events Monday, at 13 percent.
In South Carolina, Mr. Graham’s 17 percent led Mr. Bush’s 15 percent and Mr. Walker’s 12 percent, with Mr. Huckabee and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson tied at 10 percent apiece.
The 47-year-old Mr. Walker, who delivered a well-received speech at Rep. Steve King’s “Iowa Freedom Summit” last month, managed to crack double digits in all three states. But he still did not lead in any of them — nor did Mr. Paul, Mr. Rubio or Mr. Cruz.
Mr. Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, only recently left his television show at Fox News to explore a possible run; neither he nor Mr. Bush have held elected office since 2007.
Mr. Graham, meanwhile, has been in Washington for decades; he was first elected to the U.S. House in 1994 before first being elected to the Senate in 2002, and is largely known for a hawkish foreign policy stance that aligns with the establishment GOP. And though he has a small lead in his home state, more than half of Palmetto State Republicans say Mr. Graham should not run for president in 2016.
The front-runners also could find themselves at odds with their own electorate on some big issues such as immigration.
Both Mr. Bush and Mr. Graham have backed proposals to grant a pathway to citizenship to illegal immigrants, but that is a minority view among the Republican base: Fewer than 50 percent of potential GOP voters in the three states said they could accept a candidate who supports a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
And fewer than 50 percent of potential Republican voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina said they could accept a candidate who supports Common Core education standards.
Mr. Bush has been criticized by conservatives for backing the standards, which Mr. Huckabee supported in the past but now opposes.
• David Sherfinski can be reached at dsherfinski@washingtontimes.com.
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