The prospect of a long and fractious Republican presidential primary, so far dominated by the divisive rhetoric of front-runner Donald Trump, is benefiting only one person, political strategists say: Hillary Clinton.
While the Republican field battles, the presumed nominee on the Democratic side is building a ground force in swing states, perfecting her messaging and loading her arsenals with opposition research — all with her eyes focused on the general election.
“When you have a primary wrapped up, you can start thinking about the general election much sooner and get into the next phase of your campaign without much interference from the other side,” said Republican pollster David Winston. “It’s an advantage, no doubt.”
Although Mrs. Clinton has faced tough questions over her tenure as secretary of state and polls suggest many voters consider her untrustworthy, she has largely escaped attacks from her competitors for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Bernard Sanders and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. Mr. Sanders even sided with Mrs. Clinton during the first debate of Democratic candidates by saying: “The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails.”
The Republican race for the White House hasn’t been so polite.
Mr. Trump has taunted all of his competitors. He called former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush “low-energy,” associated retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson with pedophiles, talked about Sen. Marco Rubio’s money problems and referred to the “face” of businesswoman Carly Fiorina.
Mr. Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz are also jabbing at each other. Mr. Rubio is trying to blunt Mr. Cruz’s momentum by raising doubts about the Texan’s positions on national security and immigration. Mr. Cruz has hit back by highlighting the Floridian’s work with Sen. Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, on immigration.
Mr. Winston said Republicans need those sorts of fights but the eventual nominee will have to mend some fences in the end. It’s no easy feat, though George W. Bush managed to do it in the 2000 election.
Democratic strategists said their nominee will helm a unified coalition while the Republican candidate struggles.
“It’s fair to say this circus on the Republican side has stained the Republican brand and will stain whoever the eventual nominee is,” said Mark Mellman, president of the Mellman Group, who has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982. “This process has had a negative prospect on Republicans’ prospects for winning in 2016.”
Mr. Trump’s dominance of the public conversation also is helping Mrs. Clinton by keeping her Democratic opponents out of the spotlight and allowing her to coast on name recognition.
“The Republicans’ race has taken all of the oxygen out of the room. The national media is so focused on Trump, it’s taking away from the Democratic primary,” said Iowa state Sen. Tony Bisignano, a Des Moines Democrat. “The media airs Trump’s rallies live, but do you see Sanders’ rallies aired live, even though he attracts the same crowds? If he got half the coverage Trump received, he’d be tied with Hillary here.”
Even with the first votes yet to be cast, Mrs. Clinton has made major strides in winning delegates who will decide the nominee at the party’s national convention next summer.
Her team hired Jeff Berman, a lawyer who was Barack Obama’s top delegate strategist in 2008. The Associated Press reported that she has already received public support from more than half of the party insiders — the superdelegates — who get votes at the convention.
Her campaign has even turned its eye toward the general election by asking donors to write large checks to the Democratic National Committee so it can shore up its opposition research and communications team, according to a report this month from The New York Times.
The campaign operation she has built in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada — three of the first four states in the primary process — will help in the general election because those three are also considered swing states.
In Iowa, Mrs. Clinton has built a campaign juggernaut — with about 80 full-time staffers and hundreds of volunteers in every precinct. By comparison, Mr. Bush has 10 operatives working the Hawkeye State and Mr. Rubio has five.
Mrs. Clinton also has inherited the data analytics Mr. Obama used in the 2008 cycle from the Democratic National Committee to identify and turn out voters. Although Mr. Cruz is working with Cambridge Analytica, hoping to harness Mr. Obama’s approach for use with the Republican base of white, middle-class, evangelical voters, his endeavor is untested in a general election.
Mrs. Clinton’s biggest hurdle could be inertia. When one party has held the White House for two consecutive terms, there is generally a desire for something different. That could work in the Republicans’ favor no matter how long their primary runs, said Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire.
“In 2008, there was a lot of talk of the prolonged [primary] battle between Obama and Clinton and that would damage the Democrat. In the end, a very bad economy trumped all of that interparty decision.”
He said much will depend on the state of the economy. Even Mr. Trump, who fares poorly in some polling of head-to-head matchups with Mrs. Clinton, may fare much better in the summer if he is the Republican nominee.
“Hypothetically, if the economy lurched into a serious recession, people would be surprised how well Trump would be doing in a head-to-head in August of 2016,” said Mr. Scala. “I’m sure there’d be some resistance within the party to do much for Trump, but you’d be surprised at how quickly party elites will rally behind someone doing well in the polls.”
• Kelly Riddell can be reached at kriddell@washingtontimes.com.
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