OPINION:
Donald Trump has done and said a lot of outrageous things. Some have been so outlandish that critics have said the public shouldn’t take him seriously.
That would be a mistake.
First, Mr. Trump has been too high in the polls for too long to be dismissed as a fluke. He actually could win the Republican nomination for president.
Second, Mr. Trump revels in and benefits from controversy. The more publicity he brings to himself – good or bad – the more his supporters seem to like him and the more he attracts new voters.
Third, contrary to what his critics say, Mr. Mr. Trump is dead serious. He means what he says, but not in a way that we’re accustomed to.
One of the reasons he takes such extreme positions is that, as he’s told us many times, he’s a negotiator of deals. His standard way of operating, then, is to stake out extreme positions knowing that he will have to compromise in the end.
From his point of view, the farther he goes out on a limb, the more he wins for his side in the end. In other words, voters need to take him seriously, but not literally.
This analysis is meant to explain Mr. Trump’s rhetoric, not to justify it. He is wrong both in principle and in degree in his call to block Muslims from entering the U.S.
The Muslim ban could derail his juggernaut. The proposal is unconstitutional if not un-American. Even fervent Trump backers will eventually will see the danger in that kind of blanket discrimination and begin to doubt Mr. Trump’s judgment.
Republican mainstreamers believe that nutty plans like this one will ultimately bring Mr. Trump down. They posit that he will lose in Iowa, probably to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) if polls are correct. Then someone – Sen. Cruz or Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), probably – will beat him in the next contest in New Hampshire.
Once Mr. Trump loses his air of invincibility, they suggest, he will deflate and probably drop out of the race entirely because the last thing he wants is to be seen as an also-ran. His very valuable brand would be tarnished.
That may be wishful thinking. Mr. Trump’s staying power is remarkable given his disregard for facts – his insistence that New Jersey residents cheered while the World Trade towers fell in 2001 – and his public mockery of a disabled New York Times reporter.
Either of those gaffes would have been disqualifying for a top candidate for president in the past. But Mr. Trump survived them both.
At least one pundit likened Mr. Trump’s attractiveness as a candidate to professional wrestling, particularly its bravado and fantasy fisticuffs. Lovers of professional wrestling willingly suspend disbelief and pretend that the characters are real – as is their fighting in the ring – even though neither is real.
Basically, voters accept Mr. Trump as a reality TV kind of candidate, they say.
Translation: As much as a third of would-be Republican primary voters have such low regard for politics these days – and for office holders in Washington – that they would rather be entertained than governed even when faced with a choice that isn’t fantasy at all.
That’s probably too glib an interpretation. Voters are afraid of the specter of terrorism. They clearly are unimpressed by President Obama’s light-fisted leadership on the issue. Mr. Trump’s bluster gets a lot closer to expressing their deep emotions on the subject and he is embraced by many of them as a result.
President Obama’s appeal to the heads of Americans has been trumped by Mr. Trump’s appeal to their hearts.
Old hands at politics continue to say that Trump can’t last as the front runner, that Sens. Rubio or Cruz will inevitably overtake him when voters come to their senses. But less than two months before voting begins in Iowa, many voters have not changed their minds yet.
Mr. Trump may be negotiating his way into the White House.
Jeffrey H. Birnbaum is a Washington Times columnist, a Fox News contributor and president of BGR Public Relations.
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