As the Islamic State continues to conduct attacks against Western targets, while holding off the Iraqi army, and simultaneously withstanding the combined air strikes of the United States, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Syria, and soon China, it is imperative to develop a strategy to defeat the terror group. For more than a year, world powers have attempted to use a failing strategy to stop ISIS, despite common sense solutions that can effectively cripple the organization.
1. Stop countries that support and fund ISIS
In a statement to Agence Franche-Presse, the United States Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs leading the Bureau of Energy Resources (ENR), Amos Hochstein, confirmed that ISIS is selling oil in Turkey. Russia and Iraq have backed up the claims against Turkey, alleging it is far more widespread than previously thought.
“All along there’s always been the idea that Turkey was supporting ISIS in some way … Someone’s buying that oil that ISIS is selling, it’s going through somewhere, it looks to me like it’s probably going through Turkey, but the Turks haven’t acknowledged that,” former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark told CNN.
The New York Times reports “The Obama administration is struggling to cut off the millions of dollars in oil revenue that has made the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria one of the wealthiest terror groups in history, but so far has been unable to persuade Turkey, the NATO ally where much of the oil is traded on the black market, to crack down on an extensive sales network.” In 2014, the New York Times estimated that there are more than a million dollars of illegal oil sales to Turkey from ISIS every day.
Elsewhere, Lebanese police arrested a member of the Saudi royal family last month for smuggling two tons of performance enhancing drugs, typically used by ISIS fighters, as he traveled through the country. Despite confiscating nearly 40 suitcases of the drugs, the Saudi government had no comment on the actions of one of its ruling elite.
There is significant home grown support for ISIS in Saudi Arabia. According to the Brookings Institution, the largest amount of ISIS supporters on Twitter is in Saudi Arabia. In fact, Saudi has more supporters of ISIS on social media than either Syria or Iraq.
The Middle East Monitor reports that more than 7,000 Saudis have joined ISIS, and that now 10 percent of all ISIS combatants are Saudi.
Considering the local support of ISIS in the country, and the fact that members of the royal family are willing to be arrested by nearby governments in furtherance of the country’s support for ISIS, the U.S. and others must take a hard look at Saudi Arabia and who’s side they are on: the United States or ISIS.
2. At the height of its “power” ISIS has only captured a few major cities: take them back.
While it was a shocking defeat for ISIS to overrun the Iraqi cities of Ramadi and Mosul, and the Syrian cities of Raqqa and Palmyra, the combined military might of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Iraq, Russia and China can surely take back the cities from the terror group. In fact, two of these cities were only captured because local forces fled the battlefield, despite having overwhelming forces and firepower that could have easily defeated ISIS in those engagements.
While there are numerous other small regions and townships that are controlled by ISIS, if any or all of the major cities were retaken, it would be a staggering ideological blow to Abu Bakr Baghdadi and his followers, and support would dramatically fall.
Logistically, losing a major city would significantly harm the ability of ISIS to maintain its hold over its other regions. Without a base of operations and a safe place to hide, ISIS cannot survive.
3. The airstrikes campaign does not work – change strategies
For more than a year now, coalition forces have been conducting air strikes against ISIS targets throughout Iraq and Syria. Despite satellite guided weaponry, aerial reconnaissance, tactical drone missions, and a plethora of other bombing strategies, air strikes have not been getting the job done. ISIS has adapted to this strategy, and for various known and unknown reasons, is able to operate almost freely despite bombing campaigns from half a dozen countries.
The function and practice of ISIS is not like a traditional army, and instead relies on decentralized fighting and tactics. World powers must adapt and change strategies in order to specifically focus on this new threat, rather than repeatedly bombing strongholds and conducting drone killings – especially when these strategies have failed to yield any major advancement in the fight against ISIS.
4. Stop the ISIS propaganda machine on social media
Last month after the ISIS attack in Paris, the hacker organization Anonymous shut down one thousand Twitter accounts held by ISIS and its supporters. According to the Brookings Institution, there may be 90,000 Twitter accounts in support of ISIS, with thousands of them displaying support for ISIS or its leaders in the actual username of the accounts.
The San Bernardino, California, attackers apparently posted pledges of loyalty to ISIS on their Facebook accounts. Focusing on Facebook, ISIS has used sophisticated arts and graphics propaganda to entice followers and supporters. Often times, covers of popular Xbox and Playstation video games will be altered to include overt references to supporting ISIS. This is done to win over young converts to the side of ISIS.
“We certainly do know that they [ISIS] monitor social media,” Rear Adm. John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, told ABC News. “I think there’s a general understanding here that his is an environment that this particular enemy has proven adept at using.”
“[ISIS]’s MO is to broadcast on Twitter, get people to follow them, then move them to Twitter direct messaging,” said FBI Director James Comey to The Aspen Times. “Then they’ll move them to an encrypted mobile-messaging app so they go dark to us.”
Given Edward Snowden’s revelations that the National Security Agency (NSA) and other security agencies can exercise significant control over Facebook, Twitter and a variety of other social media platforms and technology companies, they should be able to easily strip ISIS of its most powerful recruitment tool in the world: social media. The FBI has been known to make use of social media research to investigate other crimes, and should continue to do so with ISIS support accounts held by those that reside in the U.S. Beyond this, companies that host these social media platforms must take an active role in stopping the spread of ISIS. If Anonymous can stop 1,000 ISIS Twitter accounts in a single day, Twitter itself should have a much easier time in doing so.
While free speech concerns must be taken into account, there is a difference between voicing protected speech and actively recruiting for a terrorist organization that seeks to violently destroy the United States and subjugate the Middle East.
5. Do not prop up questionable fighting forces against ISIS; it will backfire (just as it has every single time in the past)
Supporting local fighting forces has rarely gone well for the U.S. particularly in the Middle East. The United States supported Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war. Donald Rumsfeld notoriously shook hands with the dictator the same day the United Nations announced that Iraq had used chemical agents against Iran. At the time, the U.S. provided military and diplomatic assistance to Saddam in order to counter Iran. By 2003, it was clear how strongly this support had backfired.
In the 1980s, in order to oppose the threat posed by Russian communist forces fighting in Afghanistan, the United States also armed and trained “local mujahideen” who would later become, or help found, the Taliban. The Taliban formed the base of support from which Osama Bin Laden launched his attacks against the United States.
Shockingly, Sen. John McCain was photographed in 2013 standing alongside Syrian rebels accused of kidnapping civilians caught in the violence of Syria’s civil war. While Mr. McCain’s goal was to simply support the rebels against Bashar al-Assad, this is an example of how confusing a situation can become when the United States throws its support behind fighters with questionable motives.
For quite some time now, the world’s strongest powers have been working an unsuccessful strategy against ISIS. However, considering the growing threats to the West, and the lack of progress in defeating ISIS, a change in tactics is necessary.
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