OPINION:
Lacking a consensus insider presidential candidate, Republicans appear disadvantaged now, but really have the longer-term advantage. As 2016 approaches, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have nearly the same level of support, but much different effects on their parties. The reason: Hillary Clinton is an establishment candidate who coalesces Democratic support while Republicans remain largely fragmented. However once their field shrinks, Republicans could find themselves in the stronger position next November.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders are opposites in every way, but perform the same role with their party’s most extreme supporters. Both are cathartic candidates — political primal screams. Both also appear to have hit their ceiling of support.
Their level of support is close to identical. In the Dec. 22 Real Clear Politics average of the national polls, Mr. Trump registered 33.6 percent in the Republican field and Mr. Sanders 30.5 percent in the Democratic race. So why is Mr. Trump so much larger a story than Mr. Sanders?
Mr. Trump has a number of obvious advantages over Mr. Sanders in a competition for media attention. For one thing, he is entertaining. Second, he is a professional at it — a television regular, he knows how to work the media and an audience. Third, he is an outsider to the world of politics and this makes him fresh — i.e., news — to political reporters who have not covered him before, but have followed all too many scripted candidates.
Still, the overwhelming reason Mr. Trump trumps Mr. Sanders with the media is because he is a front-runner, while Mr. Sanders will likely soon be an also-ran.
In Mrs. Clinton, Democrats have an establishment, consensus candidate to rally around. If Democrats had a field of Martin O’Malleys — their footnote No. 3 candidate now — they would have a race and Mr. Sanders would be Donald Trump, because Democrats would then also have a field akin to Republicans’ current one.
But for now, Mr. Trump appears a giant and that’s why the media cannot take their eyes off him.
Of course to the Republican establishment, Mr. Trump appears a giant as well — a giant problem. Afraid he is unelectable next November, they fear he will win their nomination and simultaneously lose their party and the general election.
However, what already exists in the Democratic race will begin happening in the Republican one — with one important caveat.
The Republican field will soon shrink. Already this is happening, without a vote being cast, and it will accelerate as votes begin to be counted. This will consolidate the votes Trump does not have — and has thus far proven unable to get — into fewer, and thereby more viable, candidates.
The Republican field will soon come to look like the current Democratic one, with a one-third core following its protest candidate, while the rest fall in behind one who will become the nominee. But there will be a crucial dissimilarity. The Republican who garners the anti-Trump vote will not be a political insider like Mrs. Clinton is.
For this, Republicans have Mr. Trump to thank, because his candidacy has now made every other Republican candidate acceptable to the Republican establishment. Mr. Trump has legitimized the remaining candidates to the Republican hierarchy. Months ago, that was unthinkable; now, it is inevitable.
No one could match Hillary’s insider credentials. For a quarter of a century she has been at the front of the political stage. Far from avoiding the spotlight, she has relished it — first as first lady, then as senator, then as secretary of state, and now twice as presumptive nominee. No current American politician is a bigger insider.
While that insider status has given Democrats a near-term advantage by sparing them Republicans’ current fragmentation and media focus on their most extreme candidate, recent history shows a longer-term disadvantage here.
Of the last five presidents, four won as political outsiders. Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan all then won re-election to boot. Bush I, the one lone insider of the last five, was also the only one to lose re-election.
In recent U.S. presidential elections, outside is the way in. Oddly, enough Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton have combined to give Republicans this opportunity. While many establishment Republicans only see current catastrophe, Mr. Trump has legitimized the entire remaining Republican field for them. For her part, Mrs. Clinton ensures that any member of that field will be an outsider compared to her — the preferential lane in which to run in American presidential races.
Validating outsider’s favored status is the nature of the Trump and Sanders candidacies — powerful proof that America remains tired of political insiders. They are effects, not causes, of this trend’s continuance. And it is one that should still favor Republicans, despite the disadvantage they now fear they suffer.
• J.T. Young served in the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget, and as a congressional staff member.
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