Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are running almost neck-and-neck in the early state of Iowa, with Mr. Trump leading Mr. Cruz by one point in a new poll and the rest of the 2016 GOP presidential field well back.
Mr. Trump, the billionaire businessman, was at 28 percent in the Quinnipiac poll released Monday, followed by Mr. Cruz, the Texas senator, at 27 percent. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida was in third at 14 percent and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson was next at 10 percent. No other candidate was above 5 percent.
“With seven weeks to go until the voting, whether Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz or any of the other candidates prevails will likely be determined by which candidate has the best turnout operation — a subject about which everyone likes to speculate but is not measurable until caucus night Feb. 1,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Mr. Carson has slipped since a Quinnipiac survey released on Nov. 24 that showed Mr. Trump in the lead at 25 percent, followed by Mr. Cruz at 23 percent, Mr. Carson at 18 percent and Mr. Rubio at 13 percent.
In the survey released Monday, 30 percent of likely Iowa caucus-goers still said they “definitely” would not support Mr. Trump, and 23 percent said the same of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who received 5 percent support in the poll.
As has been seen in some other recent polling, terrorism supplanted the economy and jobs as the most important issue for potential voters. Thirty percent of likely caucus-goers named terrorism as the most important issue when deciding which candidate to support for the GOP nomination, compared to 21 percent who said the economy and jobs, 13 percent who said foreign policy, and 11 percent who said immigration.
Voters gave Mr. Trump the edge on terrorism, the economy and illegal immigration, while Mr. Cruz got the nod on foreign policy.
“The tie at the top of the Iowa Republican Caucus reflects a change in priorities among voters. The last time Quinnipiac University polled, the economy was the top issue. Now it is terrorism, a subject on which Donald Trump gets the highest rating of any of the candidates,” Mr. Brown said.
Mr. Cruz, who has emerged as Mr. Trump’s main rival in Iowa in recent polling, had a 72 percent favorability rating, with 18 percent viewing him unfavorably. Mr. Trump had a 55 percent/39 percent favorable/unfavorable split.
“One good sign for Sen. Cruz in his battle with Trump is that voters view him much more favorably than Trump, meaning that the Texas lawmaker may have a higher potential upside,” Mr. Brown said.
Mr. Rubio had a 71 percent/18 percent favorable/unfavorable split, and Mr. Carson had a 74 percent/20 percent favorable/unfavorable split.
• David Sherfinski can be reached at dsherfinski@washingtontimes.com.
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