Islamic State building up for mass-casualty attacks, competing with al Qaeda for recruits, intel

Members of the U.S. intelligence community are warning that Islamic State fighters could be working toward mass-casualty attacks, a serious departure from the terror group’s current focus on lone-wolf attacks. 

Intelligence officials have typically categorized the Islamic State group’s main tactic as one that is less ambitious, involving one or a small group of attackers armed with simple weapons. 

In contrast, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, also called AQAP, is seen as more capable and more focused on carrying out large-scale, mass-casualty attacks, including plots on commercial aviation.

Now the intelligence community is divided, with some suggesting that the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, is looking to mirror strategies adopted by AQAP, CNN reported Saturday. 

The revelation follows recent threatening messages sent by AQAP encouraging more lone-wolf attacks.

Intelligence officials suggest that the change within ISIS has been driven, in part, by competition with AQAP for recruits, CNN reported.

“I think they’re taking a lot of the new recruits that don’t have time to train, who have not been brought up in their systems, and they’re using them to create the type of mass casualty which produces the media attention, which is exactly what they want, that shows they’re still powerful,” said CNN military analyst Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling.

Meanwhile, the Islamic State group is continuing to draw large numbers of new foreign recruits. U.S. intelligence assessments suggest new recruits have offset the thousands of casualties taken out in U.S.-led airstrikes over the last year. 

Officials estimate that the current number of Islamic State fighters is somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000, CNN reported.

However, The U.S. believes its new agreement with Turkey to allow U.S. airstrikes from a Turkish air base to help establish a safe zone indicate that Turkey is stepping up to help stem the flow of new recruits.

But U.S. efforts to train rebels in Syria to fight the terrorist group are struggling. The rebels that have gone through training are in disarray and defense officials have said up to half of the new trainees are missing, having deserted soon after training or having been captured after last week’s attack by the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front attack on a rebel site, CNN reported.