Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson is tied with real estate mogul Donald Trump atop the 2016 GOP field in Iowa, according to a Monmouth University poll released Monday that showed a desire among voters for a government outsider to be the next commander-in-chief.
Mr. Carson and Mr. Trump were each the choice of 23 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers. They were followed by businesswoman Carly Fiorina at 10 percent, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 9 percent, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 7 percent.
“These results mark a significant shakeup in the leaderboard from Monmouth’s Iowa poll taken before the first debate,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, New Jersey. “Carson and, to a lesser extent, Fiorina have surged, while Walker has faded into the background.”
In mid-July, Mr. Walker had been in front at 22 percent, followed by Mr. Trump at 13 percent and Mr. Carson at 8 percent. Ms. Fiorina was well back at 3 percent in that poll.
Nearly two-thirds of voters in the poll released Monday said they think the country needs someone outside of government who can bring a new approach to Washington, compared to 23 percent who said they country needs a president with government experience who knows how to get things done.
More than half of the cumulative support, a combined 56 percent, went to Mr. Trump, Mr. Carson, and Ms. Fiorina — none of whom have ever held public office.
Mr. Trump had a 5-point, 27 percent to 22 percent lead over Mr. Carson among tea party voters, while “very” or “somewhat” conservative voters gave narrow edges to Mr. Caron.
Evangelicals also gave Mr. Carson a 6-point, 29 percent to 23 percent edge over Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump had a 10-point, 27 percent to 17 percent edge over Mr. Carson among men, while Mr. Carson had an 11-point, 30 percent to 19 percent edge over Mr. Trump among women.
“After more than a month of Trump winning virtually every Republican demographic group, we’ve finally got a little variation in voting blocs to talk about,” Mr. Murray said.
Mr. Carson had the clear edge on favorability, with 81 percent of Iowa Republicans saying they have a favorable view of him, compared to 6 percent who say they have an unfavorable one. Mr. Trump had a 52 percent/33 percent favorable/unfavorable split.
In the poll released Monday, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was at 5 percent, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida were both at 4 percent, and Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky was at 3 percent.
Mr. Walker had a 64 percent/16 percent split, slightly worse than his 73 percent/9 percent split last month. Mr. Bush had a negative 32 percent/51 percent split, down from a 40 percent/42 percent split last month.
The survey of 405 likely GOP caucus-goers was taken from Aug. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
• David Sherfinski can be reached at dsherfinski@washingtontimes.com.
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