Immigration: In post-recession surge, number of Mexicans in U.S. hits record

Immigration to the U.S. has recovered from its recession-caused lull and is surging back, led in part by a major jump in migrants from neighboring Mexico, according to a report being released Thursday that suggests Latin Americans are once again coming and staying.

For several years, the flow had dropped, and analysts said net migration from Mexico was essentially zero — any newcomers were being offset by folks returning home or by natural attrition resulting from mortality rates.

But more than 1 million additional Mexicans came and stayed over the past two years, leaving 12.1 million in the U.S. as of June, according to the Center for Immigration Studies, a think tank that wants tighter restrictions on immigration. They were part of an overall surge that sent the total number of immigrants of all nationalities to a record 42.1 million.

The numbers cover both legal and illegal immigrants, but Steven A. Camarota, the report’s chief author and research director for the center, said illegal immigration does appear to be on the rise — a conclusion he derived from the rises in migration from Mexico and Central America.

The numbers not only mean more people are coming, but also that fewer immigrants in the U.S. are choosing to go home with the economy improving — and with the Obama administration’s push to loosen immigration enforcement.

“The administration’s cutbacks in enforcement almost certainly matter in terms of outmigration,” Mr. Camarota said. “People are saying, ’Hey, it looks like things are happening. I might as well wait.’ And fewer people are being deported from the interior of the country.”

The Mexican numbers are surging amid a heated debate in the presidential race. Republican contender Donald Trump kicked off his campaign by accusing Mexico of deliberately sending the worst elements of its society to the U.S. and vowed to build a wall to cut off the flow and make Mexico pay for it.

His remarks drew condemnation from both Republicans and Democrats, including former President Bill Clinton, who countered in an interview on Comedy Central’s “Daily Show” that net migration from Mexico had dropped to zero as Mexican society has improved, enticing more of its citizens to stay home.

Mr. Camarota’s research provocatively challenges that — and it comes as more attention is given to high-profile killings attributed to Mexican migrants, both legal and illegal, including one in San Francisco that authorities have blamed in part on that city’s sanctuary policies that shield illegal immigrants from being reported to federal authorities.

Mr. Camarota said the conversation about illegal immigrants and crime is important, but the overall levels of immigration deserve the most attention.

“The dramatic increase in recent years in the number of immigrants in the country has implications for the U.S. labor market, schools, public health systems — it has implications for the political system,” he said. “Roughly three-fourths of the immigrants in the data are in the country legally. Legal immigration has a much bigger impact on American society than illegal immigration because it’s three times bigger.”

Mr. Camarota used monthly Census Bureau Current Population Survey numbers, which give a rough but early look at immigration trends, rather than waiting for the more robust American Community Survey numbers, which report data more than a year later.

He found that the number of immigrants in the U.S. rose from 29.7 million at the beginning of 2000 to 37.2 million in 2007, where it hovered, more or less, until 2010, when it began a slight rise. The real growth has happened since the middle of 2013, though, with 2.7 million more immigrants now living in the U.S.

The growth was across the board — with the exception of European immigrants, who have remained steady for the past 15 years, and Canadians and Australians, whose numbers have declined.

The 12.1 million Mexicans are equivalent to about 10 percent of Mexico’s population.

The Mexican Embassy in Washington did not provide a comment on the new numbers. The Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund didn’t return a message seeking comment.

Some Republican presidential candidates have called for a slowdown in the levels of legal immigration.

“I’m the only one on this stage who has a plan that’s actually going to reduce immigration. Actually going to do something to help the American worker,” former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania boasted in one of the two debates on Fox News last week.

Most polls show Americans generally favor either keeping legal immigration the same or cutting it — and just a small minority want it boosted.

But among lawmakers on Capitol Hill, the reverse is true. A bill to boost legal immigration levels dramatically cleared the Senate in 2013, with the support of two Republican presidential candidates. The legislation was never sent to the House for action.