There is less enthusiasm for Jeb Bush at this point in the Republican presidential race than there was for Mitt Romney four years ago, according to party operatives who say it signaled weariness over another Bush candidacy and reflected a stronger field this time.
Mr. Bush is ahead of Mr. Romney on at least one count: Party insiders expect the former Florida governor and his allies to surpass the 2012 nominee’s opening fundraising haul. But winning over voters will be tougher, the analysts said.
“I don’t think anyone is longing for Jeb Bush,” said Craig Robinson, a former Republican Party operative who now runs TheIowaRepublican.com. “It is not like it was with Romney, where there were people still loyal to him and wanted to stick with him.”
Tom Rath, a veteran Republican Party operative in New Hampshire who worked on Mr. Romney’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns, agreed that there is less energy behind Mr. Bush at this point, though he noted that the emerging field is much deeper and more diverse than four years and that Mr. Romney was also a repeat candidate, having run four years earlier.
“In both Iowa and New Hampshire, we had built a Romney presence/team over 5 years so we had a lot more in place when he got in the race than Jeb did,” Mr. Rath said in an email.
The comparisons between Mr. Bush, brother and son to former presidents, and Mr. Romney, go beyond their fundraising. Both are former governors who have battled accusations that they lack conservative credentials to lead a party whose primary voters are trending ever rightward.
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Mr. Rath cautioned that every race is unique but said Mr. Bush has been hurt by being billed as the early front-runner, particularly after Mr. Romney’s relatively easy nomination win in 2012.
“After a race that basically was going to Mitt the last time, I think there was some resentment over there being an anointed nominee,” Mr. Rath said. “Jeb is working pretty hard to establish his own identity and team, and as the time goes by, I suspect he will be just fine organizationally and with enthusiasm.”
Mr. Bush traveled to Washington on Thursday to participate in a question-and-answer session at the National Review Institute’s Ideas Summit. He defended his support of granting illegal immigrants a path to citizenship and for Common Core K-12 education standards. Both positions have upset grass-roots conservatives.
Mr. Bush said raising expectations and increasing accountability are key to strengthening the nation’s schools. He said immigration has been a political loser for Republicans and that President Obama uses “this like a Stradivarius violin” to attack Republicans and win Hispanic voters.
“He uses this as a wedge issue, and we always lose,” Mr. Bush said, vowing that Republican leadership on legalization could “turn people into Republicans if we are much more aspirational in our message and our tone, I think, has to be more inclusive as well.”
Early polling confirms that Mr. Bush faces a tougher field. The RealClearPolitics.com average of national polls shows Mr. Bush leading the pack, but just 3 percentage points ahead of Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin. Mr. Bush is second to Mr. Walker in Iowa and New Hampshire, which host the first nominating contests.
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Mr. Romney at this point four years ago had twice the support of his closest competitor, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, in national polling, and led in Iowa and led in New Hampshire by nearly 28 points.
“Romney was definitely more popular nationally and in key early states at this time four years ago than Bush is now,” said Tom Jensen, of Public Policy Polling. “Bush has a credibility problem with conservative voters that is more serious than Romney’s ever was in the 2012 cycle.”
Mr. Jensen said Mr. Romney had a much higher favorability rating among Republicans than Mr. Bush has right now in the early caucus and primary states.
“The simple reality in 2012 was that voters who wanted a serious nominee didn’t have anywhere to go other than Romney,” he said. “Bush starts out in a less-well-liked position than Romney, and GOP voters this time around have a plethora of other serious options to be their candidate.”
Mr. Bush is maintaining a travel schedule filled with fundraisers and other public appearances. His visit to Washington on Thursday followed stops in Puerto Rico and Houston, and he is scheduled to appear Friday at Republican Party headquarters in North Carolina.
Dave Carney, a Republican Party strategist in New Hampshire, said Mr. Bush will work just like everyone else in the race.
“That is the great thing about this race. There is no one you have to be for, there is no one you have to be against,” Mr. Carney said. “It looks to me like they are the only campaign running a national campaign, and ultimately that gives him longer legs than anyone else.”
He also is likely to have deeper pockets. Between his campaign operation and Right to Rise super political action committee, he is expected to easily outpace the rest of the field in fundraising, leaving the political world eagerly awaiting the first report he files with the Federal Election Commission, expected in July.
The New York Times recently reported that the Bush camp and its friends anticipated raising in the high tens of millions of dollars in their initial period.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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