OPINION:
President Obama cannot make Congress irrelevant. Only Republicans — by mishandling their majority status — can make Congress irrelevant. After more than three frustrating months, congressional Republicans should remember this as they recalibrate for the next two years. While they may still lack the ability to enact their agenda, they have a great opportunity to package it and sell it between now and November 2016. Not only should they seize this opportunity, but by seizing it, they will greatly increase their chances of enacting their agenda in 2017.
Mr. Obama has provided congressional Republicans with enormous openings on high-profile domestic issues. Such issues represent a bridge between independents and Republicans, both already strongly dissatisfied with the president. According to a recent Reuters-Ipsos poll, independents gave Mr. Obama just a 31 percent approval rating and 59 percent disapproval, while Republicans disapproved the president by a margin of 84 percent to 14 percent.
Four domestic policy areas are particularly salient for Republicans over the next two years: Obamacare, the economy, energy and federal spending.
Consistently unpopular for five years, the Supreme Court’s pending ruling may render Obamacare even more loathed. Whether Republicans choose to repeal it, repeal and replace it, or simply extensively reform it, the health care law demands a Republican response.
If Obamacare has been this administration’s signature accomplishment, the issue affecting far more Americans has been the prolonged and profoundly underperforming economy. Since Mr. Obama took office, the economy has averaged just 1.4 percent real growth per year. While the White House made much of 2014’s second and third quarters, the fourth showed just 2.2 percent growth and 2014 as a whole, just 2.4 percent growth. The widespread perception is that the recovery is still on hold.
The economy’s subpar performance is a huge invitation for reducing and reforming taxes and eliminating inefficient regulations. The antiquated and uncompetitive nature of the tax structure is universally acknowledged, while the stifling nature of the regulatory regimen is intuitively understood. Both fit perfectly in the conservative mainstream.
The Environmental Protection Agency’s recent fracking regulations are a prime example of regulatory sclerosis and the administration’s failure to fully exploit America’s energy potential. While energy production has increased during Mr. Obama’s presidency, it has happened more in spite of him than because of him.
The problem with the Obama energy approach is that while it professes to be an “all of the above” approach, it is centered on a “none of the below” philosophy, in which fossil energy is as disdained as it is plentiful.
This boom’s potential is only just being tapped and a robust pursuit of it could yield economy-wide benefits. It is an opportunity that Democrats — owing to environmentalists’ importance within the party — cannot seize. Republicans could and should.
Mr. Obama’s federal spending and debt also provide an opening for Republicans. While the administration now touts its deficit reduction record, it neglects to mention the decrease is due to its initial spending spike — averaging 23.7 percent of gross domestic product during its first three years — compared to a 20.1 percent average over the last 40 years.
As a result, the federal debt has more than doubled since Mr. Obama took office and is projected to reach 74.2 percent of GDP this year — a level unseen since World War II’s aftermath.
Taking on federal spending, balancing the budget and reducing federal debt relative to the economy are right in conservative Republicans’ wheelhouse and central to the just-passed House and Senate budgets.
Mr. Obama has presented Republicans with an unprecedented political opening. Deeply unpopular with Independents, he has given Congress to Republicans, and left open four prime domestic policy areas attractive to Independent and Republican voters alike.
Republicans’ advantage from this opening could be enormous over the next two years. Politically, they can define themselves as the party that will effectively address America’s domestic policy problems. At the same time, they can define Mr. Obama — furthering separating Independents from him — as they could not before, due to Democrats’ control of the Senate.
Policy-wise, Republicans have time to shape solutions that can be ready to roll in 2017. This does not mean they have to continually advance fully formed proposals — complete with all the attendant political pitfalls — only to watch a recalcitrant president veto them with impunity and turn the bully pulpit against them.
It means that Republicans should be discussing, formulating and preparing such proposals. They should be constantly advancing policy solutions in these four areas to highlight their contrast with the president. By doing so, they stand to make themselves co-equal to the president, and give themselves a better-than-even chance of determining who the next one will be.
• J.T. Young served in the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004 and as a Congressional staff member from 1987 to 2000.
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