EDINBURGH, Scotland — England hasn’t been this shaken by events north of the border since William “Braveheart” Wallace fought against the English invaders in the 13th century.
Recent polls show an increasing percentage of Scots willing to vote for independence from the United Kingdom in a Sept. 18 referendum, placing future oil revenues on the line with the 307-year-old England-Scotland union.
The British pound slid to a 10-month low against the dollar Monday over the prospect of an independent Scotland.
British Prime Minister David Cameron has said emphatically that he will not resign if Scotland opts to secede from the union.
Meanwhile, George Osborne, chancellor of the Exchequer, has said the government is devising plans, in the days before the referendum, to give Scotland more financial autonomy if it remains with Britannia.
And Queen Elizabeth II, who is constitutionally required to remain neutral on political matters, is said to be very concerned about the upcoming vote and is receiving daily updates on the matter, according to royal sources. “Don’t let me be the last queen of Scotland!” the Daily Mirror tabloid screamed in a headline Monday.
PHOTOS: Momentum builds in Scotland for breakaway from U.K.
But it’s looking like the “ayes” have it.
A YouGov survey of 1,084 Scottish voters conducted for London’s The Sunday Times newspaper found that 51 percent favor independence and 49 percent want to stay in the U.K. Just four weeks ago, the YouGov poll showed 48 percent planning to vote against independence and only 42 percent for it.
In addition, a Panelbase poll conducted for the pro-independence group Yes Scotland found that 48 percent support seceding from Britain and 52 percent back remaining with Britain.
Other polls have shown a narrowing of the margin between the “yes” and “no” votes, and undecided voters hold the key to the referendum’s outcome.
Historically, support for Scottish independence has hovered at about 30 percent.
“It’s definitely winnable for ’yes’ — momentum is on their side. And even if the ’no’ side wins, it’s likely to be close and hardly a vote of confidence in the U.K.,” said Scottish political commentator David Torrance. “The implications are profound either way: A ’yes’ vote will seriously disrupt the status quo, while a narrow ’no’ will compel London to respond in some way.”
Scots will be asked to vote “yes” or “no” on the question, “Should Scotland be an independent country?”
A winning vote for independence would not affect the 1603 union of Scotland’s and England’s royal crowns, but it would end the union that dates to 1707, says Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond, who has orchestrated the referendum.
A central plank of the independence campaign is control of Scotland’s vast oil and renewable energy reserves.
Currently, all income from Scottish oil ends up in the hands of the British government in London, but independence supporters claim that income could pay for improved public services, education and Alaska-style state investment funds — and help rebuild Scotland’s economy.
In Shetland, a group of islands halfway between Scotland and Norway, oil is big business. The islands traditionally have been skeptical of independence, but the referendum has led people there to question the status quo, says Shetland journalist Jordan Ogg.
“There’s been a big change in the last six months,” Mr. Ogg said. “The difference now is that there has been a realization, especially among young people, that independence means something quite different [than what we have now]. The idea of people handing out political fliers in Shetland is quite bizarre, but it is happening.”
Typical of that shift is Louise Thomason, 31, in the tiny picture-postcard village of Quarff, who initially was opposed to independence but has decided to vote “yes.”
“The last couple of weeks, the whole campaign has picked up momentum for me it is about social justice and democracy,” she said. “Oil by itself does not create equality.”
On a Saturday afternoon in Edinburgh, the “yes” camp was highly visible, with stalls set up outside the imposing National Gallery of Scotland. Up the street in the shadow of the Scottish capital’s famous castle, pro-U.K. activist and aspiring Labour Party candidate Catriona Headley, 30, was bullish about the “no” side’s chances of winning.
“We have a parliament that represents Scotland but we can also be part of something bigger,” Ms. Headley said. “I am British, and I believe in being part of the United Kingdom. Scotland is being asked to vote for an uncertain future. The economic case for independence has not been proven.”
Skeptics of independence note a host of troubling issues for a newly sovereign Scotland — diplomatic, military, even religious. (Queen Elizabeth, head of the Church of England, reportedly has expressed concern over her relationship with the Church of Scotland, a Presbyterian body.)
Key issues include the currency Scots would use, how quickly (and whether) Scotland could join the European Union and how much of the U.K.’s national debt would Scotland be obliged to absorb.
Ms. Headley said she is not concerned about recent poll results.
“Tightening polls are a good thing for the ’no’ campaign, because it makes people realize what is at stake,” she said. “I still think we’re going to win and would be very surprised if the ’yes’ side got above 45 percent.”
The traditionally strong Labour Party has seen its power erode since the Scottish Parliament was re-established in 1999. A surprise majority for the ruling pro-independence Scottish National Party in the 2011 elections led to the legislature’s current standoff, with the London-based Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and Labour all firmly opposed to leaving the U.K.
With polls showing increased support for independence, many in the “yes” camp anticipate victory in next week’s referendum.
One thing the “yes” camp wants — and the U.K. won’t grant — is the removal of British nuclear weapons from a base in the southern Highlands, 30 miles from Glasgow. An independent Scotland would require the remainder of the United Kingdom to relocate its nuclear arsenal, and some argue it would make the British nuclear fleet nonviable.
At the southern end of Scotland, near the English border, the sleepy town of Langholm also is trying to make up its mind. On its main street, a plaque marks a visit by American astronaut Neil Armstrong, whose family hails from the area. Many in Langholm have links to England, but some still say they will vote “yes.”
“It’s for two main reasons,” said gallery owner Philip Gunn, 64, who was born in England. “Scotland would get a government accountable to the people of Scotland, and it would mean an end to nuclear weapons here.”
• This article is based in part on wire service reports.
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