Republican interest groups have dominated the campaign ad wars so far this election cycle, but Democrats began to reclaim some ground in August in their bid to hold onto their tenuous majority in the U.S. Senate and chip away at a solidly GOP House of Representatives.
Pro-GOP groups ran 134,829 ads boosting Republican Senate candidates, compared to pro-Democratic groups’ 81,254 ads, according to analysis of data from the ad-tracking group Kantar Media/CMAG by the Wesleyan Media Project. The House races were even more lopsided, with the pro-Republican groups more than doubling the Democrats, 34,341 ads to 15,135.
Democratic groups did catch up in August and even take slight leads, running 54,595 ads in Senate races compared to 53,447 ads from Republican ones. In House contests, 17,302 ads aired for Democrats in August compared to 16,072 favoring Republicans.
Jennifer Duffy with the Cook Political Report said a lot of early advertising is not terribly effective, but that the groups’ ability to hit the airwaves early has played a key role for the GOP this cycle in laying the groundwork against vulnerable Democrats for the general election campaign to come.
“I think that a lot of the early money from Republican outside groups turned out to be very effective in keeping Democratic Senate candidates from getting much of a toehold,” she said.
Robert Maguire with the Center for Responsive Politics, which worked with Wesleyan on the analysis, pointed out that Americans for Prosperity had already spent $35 million by the end of April.
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“That was a lot of money, and it was going to Arkansas, Alaska — it wasn’t going to Mississippi or any of the other places where there were some contested primaries,” he said.
AFP, having spent $16.7 million on 33,127 ads thus far, was the top outside conservative group. Senate Majority PAC, a super PAC boosting Democratic Senate candidates, spent $16.6 million on 33,750 ads through Aug. 30.
Those two groups, and others, have marshaled much of their resources in an attempt to influence competitive Senate races across the country — so much so that interest groups accounted for a majority of the ads that have run in nine of the top 10 races this cycle.
The study showed that about 35,500 ads from outside groups — 80 percent of the total — have already aired in North Carolina, which is home to one of the marquee Senate elections of the cycle between incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan and Republican Thom Tillis.
The only state in the top 10 where interest groups accounted for less than a majority of the ads thus far was Louisiana, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu is in serious danger of losing her seat. Forty-six percent of the ads there came from outside groups.
The $97 million in outside spending on Senate races this cycle has already eclipsed the $78 million level in the 2012 election cycle as groups supporting Democrats continue to try to play catch-up with their Republican counterparts.
“There’s a pendulum, and it swings back and forth in terms of each side learning from the other and picking up certain tactics,” Mr. Maguire said. “If that’s the case, there’s probably going to be a leveling out.”
• David Sherfinski can be reached at dsherfinski@washingtontimes.com.
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