- The Washington Times - Saturday, September 27, 2014

Alaska Republican Dan Sullivan has pulled ahead of Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in four separate polls released in the last few days, lending more drama to a race that could decide control of the Senate.

After trailing early on, Mr. Sullivan led the incumbent in all four surveys by anywhere from 2 to 6 percentage points. What’s more, those polls were underway before a 30-second television ad began airing this week in which popular GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski asks Alaskans to elect Mr. Sullivan.

“She’s the most popular public figure in the state—by far,” Anchorage pollster Marc Hellenthal said.

“It’s an eyeball-to-eyeball endorsement. She’s talking to the camera the entire time, about how she wants somebody who can help her take on [President] Obama. And she wants Dan Sullivan,” Mr. Hellenthal said. “There are no ifs, ands or buts. It’s a very strong endorsement.”

Mr. Hellenthal’s independent poll of 400 Alaska voters found Mr. Sullivan leading by 46 to 42 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll of likely Alaska voters showed Mr. Sullivan ahead by 48 to 43 percent, while a Public Policy Polling survey showed the Republican up by 43 to 41 percent.

“Making life more difficult for Begich is Barack Obama’s continued unpopularity in the state,” said the analysis by PPP polling director Tom Jensen. “Only 40 percent of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 56 percent who disapprove.”

Begich spokesman Max Croes chalked up the polls to the volatility of the race. Mr. Begich had been ahead in most polls taken before the Aug. 19 primary, and led Mr. Sullivan in surveys commissioned earlier this month by the pro-Democrat Senate Majority PAC and the AFL-CIO.

“There’s a number of numbers that have changed over the course of time, sure,” Mr. Croes told the Alaska Dispatch New. “They’re going to go up and they’re going to go down.”

Another poll released last week, conducted by Anchorage-based Dittman Research for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, had Mr. Sullivan with a 49 to 43 percent lead. The chamber also endorsed Mr. Sullivan at a Thursday press conference, according to the Alaska political website AmandaCoyne.com.

“The momentum in this race just keeps breaking our way,” said a Thursday post on the Sullivan campaign Facebook page.

A first-term senator, Mr. Begich is regarded as a tough, smart competitor who’s being hobbled by anti-Obama sentiment in the solidly red state. He doesn’t make many unforced errors, but he pulled an attack ad earlier this month that referred to a highly publicized 2013 double murder after a backlash from the victims’ family.

The website FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting model updated Friday gives Mr. Sullivan a 72 percent chance of winning, up from 67 percent. Shortly before the latest slew of polls were released Thursday, the Rothenberg Political Report moved the race from “toss-up/tilt Democrat” to “pure toss-up.”

• Valerie Richardson can be reached at vrichardson@washingtontimes.com.

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