The Rothenberg Political Report changed its predictions Wednesday in five Senate races, with four of the switches moving in the Republican candidates’ favor.
In Colorado, analyst Stuart Rothenberg shifted the Senate contest’s rating from “pure tossup” to “tossup/leans Republican,” reflecting a slew of recent polls showing Republican Rep. Cory Gardner running several points ahead of Democratic Sen. Mark Udall.
“Given the polls and our view that the GOP ground game has been seriously underestimated, we now believe Gardner has a narrow advantage,” Mr. Rothenberg said in his update on Roll Call.
There was also good news for Republican Thom Tillis in the tight North Carolina Senate race, which moved from “tossup/tilts Democratic” to “pure tossup.” Mr. Tillis is challenging Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in Tuesday’s election.
“Hagan’s lead seems to have all but vanished, and Republicans who a month or two ago were quite pessimistic about the race have grown cautiously optimistic. This race now looks too close to call,” Mr. Rothenberg said.
The only close race that tilted in the Democrats’ favor came in Georgia, where Democrat Michelle Nunn is challenging Republican David Perdue for the open seat. The report shifted the race from “leans Republican to “pure tossup.”
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“Most (though not all) recent polls strongly suggest this race will go to a runoff in January, giving Democrats more time to keep Republican David Perdue under the microscope,” Mr. Rothenberg said.
The Senate races in South Dakota and West Virginia, which were already trending heavily in the Republicans’ favor, moved further to the right. In South Dakota, the race went from “leans Republican” to “favored Republican,” while the West Virginia contest moved from “favored Republican to “safe Republican.”
• Valerie Richardson can be reached at vrichardson@washingtontimes.com.
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