OPINION:
In our divisive political times, Republicans won big for the second midterm election in a row. The bigger prize for Republicans, however, is the presidency in 2016. That election could be their last chance to repeal Obamacare.
In order to win the presidency in two years, Republicans will need to be far more strategic than in years past. That means 2015 should be the year of building coalitions and 2016 the year of putting Democrat candidates on record.
Realistically, the next two years of politics really only includes a eight month window of Congressional action. In the cable television age, which tends to nationalize all of politics, the political cycle triumphs over the legislative cycle. As a result, the newly crowned Republican Congress has only a limited time to win over enough Americans to win the presidency.
As many pundits and Democrats have said, the 2014 midterms were more about Democrats being voted out of office by a depressed electorate – than Republicans being brought back in triumphantly with defined mandate. Given how frequently the House has flipped in the last 20 years – after 40 years of stability – in the headiness of the 2014 election victory, Republicans would do well to recognize how unsteady the American electorate is.
To address that, rather than pick early fights, Republicans should pick early wins. Republicans should concentrate on passing legislation that Independents and Democrats support – not so much Independents and Democrats in Congress – I mean Independents and Democrat across America.
The Republican goal should be to rack up victories and get America for them – not just against Obama. They should start with the Keystone pipeline. Pass the bill. Then they should campaign across America for it.
They should use their newfound bully pulpit to build support far beyond where it is today. Tell America it will lead to energy security. Let them know it reduces the power of Russia and Iran. Build support to point where they could override a presidential veto. Then move on to the next victory such as tax reform, the repeal of the medical device tax, which is unsupported by many Democrats and more.
Republicans should not pick a fight over Obamacare at the start of 2015. That would derail their ability to win over America. They should wait until 2016 to go after Obamacare. By then, the rest of Obamacare will have kicked in. Higher premiums will be a fact of life. Lost coverage will be a fact of life. People paying out of pocket – instead of getting “free” through their employers – will be a fact of life.
Then Republicans need to take a page out of their 2000 playbook and make 2016 the year of putting Democrats on record. In 2000, Republicans passed a tax reduction bill. It didn’t become law, but it forced the Democrats to go on record against it. It forced Al Gore to go on record against it – and it helped George Bush get elected President.
By 2016, resistance to Obamacare will have reached new heights. That is when there should be a repeal vote, which will be after Republican goodwill has been built. At that point, Republicans will be able force Hillary and Elizabeth Warren to say that they stand by Obamacare. That will help Republicans win the presidency.
In short, when electorates are divided, successful parties build a coalition first and then get aggressive. If Republicans use that strategy, they can win in 2016 and repeal Obamacare. If they choose to fight first, however, 2016 may turnout to be just another 2012.
Thomas G. Del Beccaro is the former Chairman of the Republican party in California.
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