A combination of bold policy moves and holiday goodwill has translated into a noticeable bump in approval ratings for President Obama, but some analysts say the so-called “comeback” will be fleeting unless the White House changes course and actively courts Republican partners for heavy legislative lifts.
Surveys show Mr. Obama has rebounded in the weeks following disastrous midterm elections for Democrats. A Gallup poll released Wednesday puts the president’s approval rating at 48 percent, the highest since August 2013.
Noted pollster John Zogby last weekend claimed that an “Obama comeback” was under way, crediting positive economic trends, the restoration of diplomatic relations with Cuba, a seemingly tough stance against North Korea following the hacking of Sony Pictures, and other actions for the uptick in poll numbers. The news comes as the first family vacations in Hawaii.
“This week, it is sunshine literally and figuratively for the president,” Mr. Zogby said in his weekly White House report card, giving Mr. Obama an “A” grade.
But political specialists say Mr. Obama’s bounce is both somewhat artificial and, more importantly, almost sure to be temporary.
While the deal with Cuba, a recovering economy and other factors have played a role, the positive poll numbers are equally the result of an American public in good spirits during the holiday season, specialists say. In addition, Mr. Obama benefits from being on vacation and, subsequently, out of the everyday political fray.
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The uptick in polls also is partly the result of the president recapturing the base of the Democratic Party with executive action on immigration reform, the Cuba deal, climate change initiatives and other efforts popular on the left, said Lara Brown, program director with the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“His actions related to immigration and Cuba, I think, heartened Democrats. Along with the uptick with Hispanics [approving of Mr. Obama], there has been an uptick in Democratic approval of the president. But none of this is really meaningful,” Ms. Brown said. “At the end of the day, we had a highly polarized electorate. The only reason he fell to 40 percent [approval rating] is because Democrats were frustrated.”
Indeed, Mr. Obama’s approval among Democrats has stabilized throughout December and now stands at 79 percent after dipping to 76 percent during the first week of the month, according to Gallup.
Perhaps more importantly, data also show Mr. Obama has made gains among independents. At the end of November, 36 percent of independents said they approved of the job the president was doing. That figure now is 41 percent, Gallup reported.
Moving forward, analysts say it’s likely Mr. Obama’s approval ratings will sink back down into the low-to-mid 40s, where they’ve hovered for most of the year — unless he can start racking up key legislative wins.
“What he just did to get this little bit of a bounce was re-energize his base. Now he needs to go for a substantive gain, which means he needs to accomplish something with Republicans,” Ms. Brown said.
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For his part, the president seems open to working more closely with Republicans during his final two years in office. With the GOP set to take control of the Senate — and completely control the agenda on Capitol Hill — Mr. Obama has indicated he knows he can do a better job developing allies in Congress.
“I can always do better in every aspect of my job, and congressional relations isn’t exempt from that,” the president said in an interview with NPR, released Monday but taped before the first family left for Hawaii.
“What I’m hopeful about is a recognition by both Speaker Boehner and Mitch McConnell that people are looking to them to get things done and that the fact that we disagree on one thing shouldn’t prohibit us from getting progress on the areas where there’s some overlap,” he continued.
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.
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