We once rescued the Cubans from Spain; now it is time to assist in their rescue from the Castros.
We are witnessing a rather astonishing drama in Washington D.C. A president who has been so inept in dealing with a divided Congress for the past four years is suddenly outmaneuvering a Congress about to be controlled by the opposition. Just when he is entering his so-called “lame duck” period, he begins to capture the headlines with a series of Executive Orders which address long-simmering problems in America’s portfolio of problems.
His latest move is to initiate normalization of U.S. relations with America’s most troublesome neighbor, the Republic of Cuba. Again, as with his last controversial EO on immigration, he has bypassed Congress in a way which has many in Congress sputtering about an abuse of Executive power. Nevertheless, there is apparently enough bipartisan support for the substance of the move to preclude any serious opposition when the new Congress convenes in January.
As long as the Cold War lasted, Cuba brazenly sided with the Soviet Union against the U.S. The cost of this alliance for the Soviets was a bountiful subsidy which kept the Cuban economy alive, if not thriving, and which constituted an increasingly severe drag on the Soviet economy. In addition, after the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, American military strength kept the Soviets from exploiting their ally’s location only 104.91 miles from Key West. Thus the policy of isolating Cuba made geo-political sense.
After the fall of the Soviet Union and the consequent termination of their subsidy to Cuba, the vacuum was at least partially filled by another U.S. irritant, Venezuela, which had become an oil rich country. But now the falling price of oil has put Venezuela on an austerity budget which does not allow for subsidies to Cuba.
Thus the time is right for Cuba to be very receptive to an American change of face. President Obama’s diplomatic recognition of Cuba is being welcomed by Cubans as an act of salvation.
Of course, that raises a different objection to his action. There are some very vocal critics who assert that Obama did not extract a sufficiently transformative set of conditions before granting diplomatic recognition. This contention is one of the objections raised by Cuban Americans who have themselves or whose families have suffered from the oppressive regime of Fidel and now his brother, Raul, Castro. They hold a long-standing and implacable hatred for the Castro brothers, which likely will never be appeased short of the Castros’ complete destruction.
The Obama position is that 53 years of pressure on Cuba have not yielded any noticeable progress toward a more democratic government, so it is time to try another approach. The flood of American tourists and the hard currency they will bring with them will undoubtedly help the Cuban government survive this current crisis. But it will also tear down the walls of Cuba’s isolation from the 21st century. The Cuban people will see what has been happening in other countries, including the introduction of modern communication technologies.
We have seen what has happened in the Arab Spring and before that the opening of Eastern Europe and explosion of public protest in China when the internet was introduced. While there are also examples of dictators hanging on even after U.S. acceptance, most notably China, there is reason to believe that the impact of American influence on the ordinary Cubans will produce a “soft” landing for the Cuban government, and allow the people of Cuba a more desirable choice. A combination of factors contribute to this optimism: a generational change of control is on the horizon due to the age of the younger Castro (Raul is 83 years old), and presumably the United States has learned its lesson from the outcomes of the Arab Spring. “Leading from behind” doesn’t work.
Frankly, given the history of this relationship, a rapprochement between the two countries is the only course which makes any sense. From the macro view of geopolitical strategy, the longstanding embargo proved advantageous to the United States during our rivalry with the Soviet Union. However, the embargo never affected the elite governing junta which flourished no matter what we did. It was and has always been the Cuban people who have suffered the most from the U.S. embargo. We now have a once in a generation chance to assist the Cuban people to achieve a more congenial form of government as the Castro era draws to a close. There is no hope of affecting that outcome from across the divide of unrelenting hostility.
To quote John F. Kennedy: “Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners, and necessity has made us allies.”
Those whom God has joined together, let no man put asunder.
He was speaking of Canada (address to the Canadian Parliament in Ottawa, May 17, 1961), but the thought also applies to Cuba. We once rescued the Cubans from Spain; now it is time to assist in their rescue from the Castro’s. With America’s careful and gradual help, we hope it can be done peacefully — and soon.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.