A record number of U.S. counties — more than 1 in 3 — are dying off, hit by an aging population and weakened local economies that are spurring young adults to seek jobs and build families elsewhere.
Census estimates released Thursday highlight the population shifts as the U.S. encounters its most sluggish growth levels since the Great Depression.
The findings also reflect the increasing economic importance of foreign-born residents as the U.S. ponders an overhaul of a major 1965 immigration law. Without new immigrants, many metropolitan areas such as New York, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh and St. Louis would have posted flat or negative population growth in the past year.
“Immigrants are innovators, entrepreneurs, they’re making things happen. They create jobs,” said Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, a Republican, at an immigration conference in his state last week. He said Michigan should be a top destination for legal immigrants to boost the economies in Detroit and other struggling areas. Then he made a special appeal: “Please come here.”
The growing attention on immigrants is coming mostly from areas of the Midwest and Northeast, which are seeing many of their residents leave after years of staying put during the downturn. With a slowly improving U.S. economy, young adults are now back on the move, departing traditional big cities to test the job market mostly in the South and West, which sustained the biggest hits in the housing bust.
Also seeing big declines now are rural and exurban areas, along with industrial sections of the Rust Belt.
Census data show that 1,135 of the nation’s 3,143 counties are now experiencing “natural decrease,” where deaths exceed births. That’s up from roughly 880 U.S. counties, or 1 in 4, in 2009. Already apparent in Japan and many European nations, natural decrease is now increasingly evident in large swaths of the U.S.
Despite increasing deaths, the U.S. population as a whole continues to grow, boosted by immigration and relatively higher birth rates among the mostly younger migrants from Mexico, Latin America and Asia.
“These counties are in a pretty steep downward spiral,” said Kenneth Johnson, a senior demographer and sociology professor at the University of New Hampshire, who researched the findings. “The young people leave and the older adults stay in place and age. Unless something dramatic changes … these areas are likely to have more and more natural decrease.”
The areas of natural decrease stretch from industrial areas near Pittsburgh and Cleveland and the vineyards outside San Francisco to the rural areas of East Texas and the Great Plains. A common theme is a waning local economy, such as farming, mining and industrial areas. They also include some retirement communities in Florida, although many are cushioned by a steady flow of new retirees each year.
In the past year, Maine joined West Virginia as the only entire states where deaths exceed births, which have dropped precipitously after the recent recession. As a nation, the U.S. population grew by just 0.75 percent last year, stuck at historically low levels not seen since 1937.
The study can be found online at census.gov.
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