The rapid-fire GOP presidential primary season is about to ease into a slower pace and a more spread-out map, creating new challenges for Newt Gingrich.
February will bring several primaries and caucuses likely to lack the intensity of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. It has only one debate, three weeks from now. And the month contains contests in three states with significant Mormon presences — Nevada, Arizona and Colorado — and in Michigan, where Mitt Romney’s father was governor.
All these factors could pose problems for Mr. Gingrich, the former House speaker who is struggling to keep pace with Mr. Romney in Tuesday’s Florida primary. Travel to and within the seven states with February elections will be costly, and Mr. Romney consistently has shown superior fundraising abilities. The dearth of televised debates will rob Mr. Gingrich of forums that revived his campaign in South Carolina, even if he performed rather poorly in two subsequent debates in Florida.
For Republican activists and political junkies, February will present something of a lull. No single state will dominate the process as did the first four states. February will have trouble matching January’s drama: Iowa’s razor-thin results that first tilted to Mr. Romney, but later were credited to Rick Santorum; the withdrawals of Jon Huntsman Jr. and Rick Perry; and Mr. Gingrich’s come-from-behind win in South Carolina that established him as Mr. Romney’s chief threat.
The plodding feeling of the campaign will end dramatically on March 6, when 10 states vote on Super Tuesday. The nomination could essentially be decided then, especially if Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, makes full use of his financial and organizational advantages between now and then.
Mr. Gingrich, however, has vowed to fight “all the way to the convention” in Tampa, Fla., in late August.
Referring to Mr. Romney, he said, “I think he’s going to find this a long campaign.”
Mr. Gingrich bounced back from a political near-death experience last summer, and then again after his poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. His supporters warn against counting him out prematurely again.
Romney advisers, however, argue that the calendar favors them.
“We’re entering a phase now where the question of whether a campaign is built for prime time will be tested,” said Romney consultant Kevin Madden. “Can you organize and reach voters, both in-person and on-air, across multiple states for multiple weeks?”
Mr. Romney “is well-positioned for this stretch,” Mr. Madden said, having built “the kind of campaign that can compete in conditions that are more like the general election.”
The first GOP contest after Florida is the Nevada caucus, on Saturday.
Mr. Romney won the state in 2008 and should do well there again with its heavy Mormon presence. However, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas also has made a significant effort in Nevada.
On Feb. 7, Missouri has a primary, and Colorado and Minnesota hold caucuses. Four days later, Maine will announce the results of its local caucuses. Then there’s a 17-day break before the Arizona and Michigan primaries on Feb. 28.
Mr. Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, will face painful choices about how to allocate his primary campaign resources. Mr. Gingrich will, too. But his big South Carolina win, and his 30 years of national political prominence, provide him more money and momentum.
Mr. Romney was already looking past Florida on Monday, planning to stop in Minnesota on his way to Nevada on Wednesday.
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