OPINION:
This year’s presidential race will be tough, tight and concentrated. National polling has been giving this general indication, but recent state polling removes all doubt. It also shows with far greater clarity just how brutal this election is going to be overall and how tough it will be for President Obama in particular.
At the end of last month, Gallup released its aggregated results for state tracking polls from 2011. This survey of 179,170 adults in the 50 states and the District of Columbia accounts for the 538 electoral votes that will determine the presidency.
The difference between a state-by-state survey and the normal national surveys is the difference between a film shown at regular speed and one viewed frame by frame.
The accompanying chart shows the results broken down into three categories. The first column lists those states and their electoral votes, or EVs, that gave Mr. Obama a 50 percent or greater approval rating. The second column lists those states that gave the president a 50 percent or greater disapproval rating. The third column lists those states that are split on Mr. Obama - where neither the approval nor disapproval rating is above 50 percent - and is registered as positive or negative depending on whether approval or disapproval is higher.
The implications for the November election from such a state-by-state breakdown are stark. Mr. Obama can readily count on just 159 electoral votes. Conversely, he can count against 217 electoral votes. That leaves 162 electoral votes in the toss-up column.
With 270 electoral votes needed to win, Mr. Obama needs to gain 111, or 67 percent of the 162 toss-up electoral votes. His opponent will need to gain just 53, or 33 percent of the toss-up electoral votes. Of those toss-up electoral votes, the president is ahead in states totaling just 56 votes while trailing in states totaling 100.
Expect the campaign to be tough, even brutal. With so many states registering presidential approval ratings below 50 percent after Mr. Obama’s three years in office, an economy only projected by the Congressional Budget Office to grow 2 percent this year, and political gridlock making additional accomplishments unlikely, a negative campaign is virtually assured. For the Obama campaign, there is little chance to change the public’s unfavorable perception; on the Republican side, there is every desire to reinforce it.
Expect the race to be tight. These figures may well show Republicans’ high-water mark. Despite the fact that Mr. Obama’s hurdle looks high, these are results for a one-man race - they rate the president alone.
Expect the race to be concentrated. This election is going to be decided in those 13 split states. Mr. Obama will have ample resources to deliver his message, and he knows exactly where he needs to deliver it. Ditto for the Republicans. The other 38 states really won’t be battlegrounds. The real fight will be for no more than 111 electoral votes. If Mr. Obama gets them, he wins; if the Republican challenger denies him just one electoral vote, he wins.
Of course, there are caveats aplenty. For one, things change. These are 2011 poll results, and Mr. Obama’s poll figures have been trending upward from his earlier low-40s national approval rating. For another, the Republican nominee will bring his own negatives, which may well buoy Mr. Obama by comparison. Additionally, there will be unknown national and international events, not to mention the vagaries of the campaign itself.
These state poll numbers are therefore hardly predictive. However, they certainly are indicative of the hard, close and compacted campaign America should expect. That is the nature of America’s presidential politics. The only difference between it and political philosopher Thomas Hobbes’ description of life in the state of nature - “nasty, brutish and short” - is that this campaign will be anything but short.
J.T. Young served in the Treasury Department, the Office of Management and Budget and as a congressional staff member.
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