ANALYSIS/OPINION:
You’ve got to admire Mitt Romney for his forthrightness. With his choice of Rep. Paul Ryan, Wisconsin Republican, for the presidential ticket, the presumptive Republican nominee boldly signaled his willingness to take on the labor movement.
Whatever the other consequences of the selection — such as ensuring a choice election rather than the hoped-for referendum on President Obama or facilitating a campaign based on serious policy issues — one thing is clear: Those blue-collar conservatives we’ve discussed frequently in this space are being downplayed by the former Massachusetts governor.
Reagan Democrats who helped elect and re-elect both Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush won’t be a focus of GOP attention from the Romney-Ryan ticket. Although the two men differ in many ways — Mr. Romney is a Washington outsider with vast business experience; Mr. Ryan is a Beltway insider — they share a desire to slash government, reduce public services, consolidate or eliminate programs and take on entitlements. Each of these puts them at odds with unions. That’s especially so as regards public-sector unions, now the majority within labor.
They also share a frequently voiced admiration for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s efforts to curtail public-sector unions’ collective-bargaining rights.
All this could spell trouble for the ticket in some key industrial battleground states heavily populated by NASCAR dads whose social views and sense of patriotism align closely with Republicans but whose economic views lean Democratic. While some union members may not agree with their unions’ political activities, they don’t appreciate gratuitous knocks on labor.
When you hear Democrats applauding this choice, what many of them are thinking about is the effect on places such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio — home to a total of 2.1 million union members, many of them swing voters. They generally voted for Mr. Obama four years ago, but they haven’t been enamored with his economic stewardship.
A week ago, they — and their states’ electoral votes — were up in the air; less so now.
This doesn’t mean that Mr. Ryan is a bad choice. He is personable, issue-driven and probably the most informed on government budgets of the four candidates. He also energizes the conservative base while boosting prospects in Wisconsin. It simply means that Mr. Romney will seek a winning strategy other than the one that propelled Mr. Reagan to victory in analogous circumstances — trying to unseat a Democratic incumbent in a poor economy.
To be fair, Mr. Romney had few realistic options in this regard; the list of prospects with a labor appeal probably starts and ends with former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Moreover, it would have been tricky for Mr. Romney to walk back his jabs at “union stooges” without facing renewed charges of flip-flopping.
In any case, with the industrial battlegrounds now harder to snatch from Mr. Obama, a swing state such as Florida becomes more critical. But Mr. Ryan’s plans to alter programs important to senior citizens are likely to make him susceptible to damaging attacks, whether fair or unfair.
There is an intriguing, if minor, sidebar to all this. Some conservative websites and bloggers have, in the past few days, slammed Mr. Ryan for being — get this — too close to labor.
The reference is to Mr. Ryan’s relationship with union contractors in Wisconsin, starting with his time at his family’s construction firm. He has defended unions as involving working people collectively bargaining for a better life. The congressman also has supported prevailing wages for federally funded projects, which just last year put him at odds with GOP leaders seeking to overturn the practice.
You’re not going to hear from the GOP ticket about these traces of sympathy for labor, which in any case apply rather narrowly to construction unions, but some interesting political theater might result if Mr. Ryan — or even more so, Mr. Romney — is asked about it.
• Philip Dine, author of “State of the Unions: How Labor Can Strengthen the Middle Class, Improve Our Economy, and Regain Political Influence,” is a Washington-based journalist and a frequent speaker on labor issues.
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