MOSCOW — Vladimir Putin’s decision to reclaim the presidency next year sets up the scenario that he could rule Russia until 2024 and foreshadows a continuation of the strongman rule that many in the West have called a retreat from democracy.
Although Mr. Putin departed the Kremlin in 2008 because of term limits and moved about 1 1/2 miles down the road to the prime minister’s office, in a sense he never left at all.
He cannily used Russia’s state-controlled national TV channels to remain the country’s pre-eminent political figure, with appearances portraying himself as a bold adventurer in Russia’s wilderness, a vigorous advocate of the country’s global importance and, occasionally, as a bit of a rogue consorting with scruffy motorcyclists.
His hand-picked successor as president, Dmitry Medvedev, appeared as little more than a tame youngster in comparison - enthusing about Twitter and issuing earnest statements about the need for reforms, but achieving few tangible results.
“He didn’t do anything important, and I’m pretty sure they didn’t let him do anything,” said Vyachelsav Mazurkov, who was spending a cool fall afternoon in a Moscow park soon after the congress of Russia’s dominant political party approved Mr. Putin’s candidacy Saturday.
If Mr. Putin wins the March 4 election - a near-certainty given his popularity and mastery of Russia’s political system - he will return to a presidency even more powerful than when he left.
In 2012, the presidential term will be extended to six years from four, and he would be eligible to serve two terms. Just a few weeks shy of turning 59, the avid martial-arts fan appears to have robust health.
In nominating Mr. Putin, his United Russia party also approved his proposal that Mr. Medvedev take over Mr. Putin’s current role as prime minister, the No. 2 government position.
Mr. Putin’s return to the presidency would be unlikely to ease Russia’s dispute with the United States over the building of a European missile-defense system and other issues. Economic pressures, however, could push Mr. Putin to pursue reforms aimed at attracting more foreign investment, analysts said.
During his presidency, Mr. Putin ruled Russia with a steely command, bringing about a system known as “managed democracy” that all but eliminated opposition politicians from the national eye. His personal popularity aided his maneuvering: Many Russians view him as the strong, decisive figure needed by a sprawling country troubled by corruption, an Islamist insurgency and massive economic inequality.
As president, Mr. Medvedev called for improvements in Russia’s unreliable court system and for efforts against the country’s endemic corruption. But his initiatives have produced little tangible result.
Moving Mr. Medvedev to the premiership could set him up to take the brunt of criticism for austerity measures that Mr. Putin has warned will be necessary for Russia amid global economic turmoil.
Mr. Medvedev’s presidency held hopes for change, “but our political elite made a different decision and chose the path to so-called stability,” Yevgeny Gontmakher of the Medvedev-established Institute for Contemporary Development think tank said on Ekho Moskvy radio.
“This filthy deal of the country’s supreme authorities is a blow to the institution of the presidency,” Kremlin-connected analyst Gleb Pavlovsky told the radio station.
However, a spokesman for the powerful Russian Orthodox Church lavishly praised the move.
“This is a real example of goodness and morality in politics, an example that could be envied not only by our predecessors, people who lived in Soviet times, but citizens of the majority of countries in the world, including those who try to teach us,” the Rev. Vsevolod Chaplin was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency.
Mr. Putin’s return to the presidency likely would continue or even strengthen the “managed democracy” system he installed during his first stint as president. Under it, opposition parties face high obstacles to winning seats in parliament. Of the four parties currently in parliament, only the Communists, whose support is dwindling, act as a genuine opposition force.
Authorities rarely approve opposition groups’ attempts to hold rallies, and police quickly break up unsanctioned gatherings. All major television channels are under state control and rarely present opposition views.
Under Mr. Medvedev, Russia’s relations with the West have been less tense, even though Russia’s domestic politics have undergone little change. The improved relations with Washington largely reflected President Obama’s “reset” initiative.
Despite Mr. Medvedev’s statements of reformist intent, Russia remained under strong Western criticism. A report by the U.S.-based NGO Freedom House last year said “there has been a steady erosion of the content, if not the formal institutions, of Russian democracy.”
The U.S. wants to put elements of a missile-defense system in Europe, saying it is needed to counter the threat of attack from rogue nations such as Iran. Russia has disputed the need, saying the defense missiles instead could be aimed at it, a stance that is unlikely to change with Mr. Putin back at the presidency.
Many connect Mr. Putin with Russia’s turnaround from post-Soviet poverty to prosperity, largely driven by high prices for Russia’s vast supplies of oil and natural gas. But growing awareness of the need to move beyond a natural-resources economy could force Mr. Putin in a new term as president to pursue reforms, some analysts say.
“I expect Putin will establish a very pro-business and pro-reform Cabinet,” said Chris Weafer, chief strategist of the Russian investment bank Troika Dialog.
Mr. Putin also proposed Saturday that Russia’s richest citizens face higher taxes.
The flat income tax that came into effect during Mr. Putin’s 2000-08 presidency has been widely praised as improving tax collection, and Mr. Putin’s proposal would not change that. But he called for increases in consumption and real estate taxes that hit the rich comparatively harder.
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