WILTON, Iowa — Iowa’s presidential caucuses are any Republican candidate’s to win.
Just two months before the voting begins, Iowa Republicans aren’t surging toward former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney even though he’s essentially been running for president since losing in the state in 2008.
This time, none of his opponents has emerged as the consensus candidate of conservatives to become his main rival, as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee did four years ago. As Tamara Scott, an undecided social conservative leader who backed Mr. Huckabee in that race, says: “It’s anybody’s game right now.”
That could change soon.
Sensing an opening, Mr. Romney is stepping up his Iowa campaign and talking about winning the state after months of taking a more low-key approach. He probably will return to Iowa in November and hold a conference call with thousands of Iowa caucusgoers.
“I’d love to win Iowa, any of us would. I will be here again and again, campaigning here,” Mr. Romney said recently in Sioux City.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is casting himself as the conservative alternative to Mr. Romney, is starting to confront the former Massachusetts governor. With $15 million in the bank, Mr. Perry started running a TV ad last week that, without mentioning Mr. Romney, challenges his efforts to portray himself as the strongest candidate on the economy.
“I’ll create at least 2 1/2 million new jobs, and I know something about that,” Mr. Perry says in the ad that highlights Texas job creation.
Businessman Herman Cain, a political outsider enjoying a burst of momentum, is starting to focus more on Iowa, adding campaign staff and visiting the state recently for the first time in 10 weeks. But he trails both Mr. Romney and Mr. Perry in fundraising by the millions.
For now at least, the race in Iowa is wide open.
Saturday evening’s results of a Des Moines Register poll showed Mr. Cain at the head of the pack, with the support of 23 percent of respondents. Mr. Romney came in just behind him at 22 percent.
Texas Rep. Ron Paul, a libertarian-leaning Republican, placed third at 12 percent, followed by Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 8 percent. Mr. Perry and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich polled 7 percent each, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum got 5 percent.
As it stands now, Iowa reflects the Republicans’ uncertainty with the crowded candidate field and its increasingly urgent search for a candidate who can defeat President Obama next fall.
“This is the first time I’ve waited this long to decide,” said Linda Allison, an Iowan who recently attended a Perry event. “I am still waiting to be convinced.”
Many factors are adding to the volatility.
Large numbers of Iowa Republicans are undecided and just starting to tune into the race in earnest. Fewer than 20 of Iowa’s 76 Republican legislators have publicly declared their support for a candidate, and no single candidate has a clear edge among those who have picked sides. At this point four years ago, nearly all lawmakers had endorsed someone.
Consider state Rep. Jeff Kaufmann, for whom Mr. Perry raised money at a recent event in eastern Iowa.
“Perry may not be the best debater, but he can really work an audience like this,” said Mr. Kaufmann, who endorsed former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson four months before the 2008 Republican caucuses. “And while Romney is well prepared, and campaigns well, I’d like to see him out in this area more.”
Iowa’s evangelical pastors, influential among the Republican base, are divided. So are home-school advocates. Both groups pushed Mr. Huckabee to victory four years ago.
“None of these home-school families are calling me and asking me about the candidates,” said Susan Geddes, a Des Moines-area Republican and top organizer for Mr. Huckabee in 2008. “Nobody’s excited about them.”
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