NEW YORK — Although Libya will not be able for several months to export as much oil as it did before it descended into civil war this year, the killing of Col. Moammar Gadhafi reduces the chance that violence will get in the way as the North African nation cranks up production again.
As Libyan crude returns, it could lower the price of oil on the international markets and gasoline at U.S. pumps.
The type of crude produced by Libya, known as light, sweet crude, is rare. It is especially valuable because it is easier for refineries to convert into diesel and gasoline. Many refineries can’t switch easily to processing other varieties of crude.
Before the civil war, Libya produced only 2 percent of the world’s oil. But even small interruptions in oil production can have a big effect on the price because the balance between supply and demand is delicate. When fears arise that supplies might fall short, traders get nervous and prices can go up fast.
The price of oil jumped 35 percent between Feb. 15, when protests started in Benghazi, and April 29, when oil hit almost $114 per barrel, the highest since 2008. Gasoline prices in the U.S. rose from $3.12 before the fighting to a three-year high of $3.98 on May 5.
By Wednesday, oil had returned to its price before Libya’s uprising began. It fell 81 cents Thursday to $85.30 a barrel in New York trading. The average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. was unchanged at $3.47.
The oil market’s reaction to Col. Gadhafi’s death was muted because efforts to revive the Libyan oil industry have been under way for months under the Libyan transitional government.
“It was a foregone conclusion that Gadhafi was finished,” said Daniel Yergin, chairman of IHS CERA, an energy research firm, and author of a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of the oil industry.
Before the war, Libya, which sits on the biggest oil reserves in Africa, produced about 1.6 million barrels of oil per day. Production collapsed during the war. Libya now produces about 390,000 barrels a day, a Libyan official said this month.
Analysts predict the country can produce 600,000 barrels per day by the end of the year and 1.6 million by the second half of next year. By then, oil, depending on where it is traded, could fall $10 to $25 per barrel, said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research.
But getting back to regular oil production could prove difficult for Libya as its government is still in its infancy. It has no parliament, no constitution and few remaining national institutions. Infighting also could spark a second uprising similar to the insurgency in Iraq, Barclays Capital analyst Helima Croft says.
“Certainly, having Gadhafi no longer on the scene takes away one source of instability. We just think the bigger problem might be the ’game of thrones’ between various factions within the rebel ranks,” Ms. Croft said.
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