BIRNBAUM: A new conservative era

OPINION:

The fight over collective bargaining in Wisconsin seems like ancient history given the other events that have crowded into the news. Natural disasters in Japan, international intervention in Libya and a budget deadlock in Washington have pushed the labor issue to the sidelines.

But it won’t remain there. A struggling U.S. economy has deprived state and federal governments of much-needed revenue, and the shortfalls have sent lawmakers scrambling to find cutbacks. The cost of labor is just one of their victims. To bring balance, legislatures are doing drastic surgery. The result will be markedly smaller governments and a new paradigm.

Dwindling economies - and shriveled government budgets - have ushered in a new conservative era. If liberalism can be defined, in part, as a belief in government, then the revenue gaps are a significant blow. Liberals are being forced from California to Indiana to sacrifice their most sacred programs and ambitions. The reason: Taxpayers can no longer afford them.

Of course, it’s possible that taxes could be raised to end the trend. Or economic growth could return at a pace we have not seen in years. Liberals charge that conservatives are merely wishing for economic reversals in order to force their philosophies into law. That’s certainly what Democrats are accusing Republicans of in Wisconsin.

There are also those who believe President Obama and his followers are playing possum and are about to spring a resurgent liberalism if he wins a second term. By accepting small cutbacks in federal spending and pretending not to take the lead in world events like the attacks on Libya, the president can say he’s no longer a booster of overweening, interventionist government.

In fact, Mr. Obama and his party continue to believe the economy will rebound and with it will come an acceptance of government that has waned in recent years. That’s, at least, the liberals’ hope.

But it’s hard to see it playing out that way. Few economists imagine that economic conditions will ever return to the boom of the 1990s. The price of energy is persistently too high for that to happen. China is also too large and looming to be anything less than the real engine of growth in the decades to come. The United States is now a major consumer nation rather than a large enough producer to make it the superpower it once was.

In addition, tax increases remain anathema to a majority of voters - and for good reason. Higher levies would squelch the one thing we need now - incentives for businesses to grow. Jobs remain scarce and lawmakers are wisely loath to raise taxes in ways that discourage commercial activity.

The result is all-out warfare between labor and management. A judge has temporarily set aside the law in Wisconsin that diminished unions’ rights to bargain collectively with the state. But the issue has not disappeared. It has, in fact, proliferated and is actively being debated around the country.

As the United States continues to slide (or stagnate) economically, these disputes will multiply even further. Cuts will have to be made somewhere and, as we’ve seen in private industry, labor costs are a major place to turn. Labor unions will inevitably be targeted - and forced to retreat - because legislators have no choice.

That’s why unions are speaking out so loudly and so often about their rights and the wisdom of keeping them intact. It’s also the reason conservative politicians are demanding that the old ways be replaced. It’s put-up or shut-up time for both sides.

The ideological battle is fully engaged and serious. Both sides are dug in deeply and are determined to fight to the death.

But the outcome, in the broadest terms, is preordained. The United States is not what it once was and, in all likelihood, will never be that way again. Retrenchment must occur for our government institutions to survive. This is the pattern we’ve seen in U.S. industry. The government will have to follow suit.

In this environment, conservatism cannot be held back. We have been thrown into a conservative era by economic reality. Wisconsin is out of the news for now, but its controversies are the precursors of many others to come.

It is the harbinger of the new conservative era.

Jeffrey H. Birnbaum is a Washington Times columnist, a Fox News contributor and president of BGR Public Relations.