OPINION:
Political pundits and Wall Street analysts have been debating whether Congress will raise the federal borrowing limit. That’s a complete waste of time. Though there’s always a chance of catastrophe, no student of modern history believes that lawmakers or the president would be irresponsible enough to allow America to default.
So set that worry aside. Instead, we should focus on the negotiations that underlie the debt-ceiling vote. The package that lawmakers are devising to shrink and reform the federal government could be the last, best hope - for a long time - for serious people to address our fiscal woes.
The presidential election is about to begin in earnest. In other words, Washington rhetoric will get even more hyperbolic and counterproductive than it already is. None of those angry words will help create the fragile consensus needed to pass a large and painful deficit-reduction plan - quite the opposite.
In fact, if lawmakers don’t come up with a meaningful and passable proposal soon, presidential demagogues will feel empowered to criticize incumbents more loudly than ever and, worse, to demand foolish though reasonable-sounding solutions. Voters might be frustrated enough to accept them.
Sarah Palin, for example, says she does not believe the United States would really sink into default in August if the borrowing limit were not increased. She also asserts that the government could simply decide what to pay and what not to pay using the revenues coming in and, as a result, would not need to borrow any more.
The practical impact of that notion would be disastrous - a kind of Chapter 11 bankruptcy for America. Citizens would suffer, the international financial system would collapse, and the United States would be to blame. Politicians who propose such simple-minded notions are dangerous. But they will be listened to if the people in charge fail to act.
Weak leadership in Congress and the White House has allowed crazy talk to proliferate. Americans are hungry for answers to fiscal problems. But all they get are show votes in the House of Representatives, no votes in the Senate and competing accusations of bad faith from both sides of the aisle.
Polls for months have put Congress’ approval rating below 25 percent. Americans have longed for a leader to bring comfort in the face of a harsh reality and have not found solace. Voters clearly are on the verge of turning desperate.
That must be avoided. Negotiators must redouble their efforts to find compromise. A grand plan that puts the government on the path toward solvency is needed, and fast. Voters are losing patience and may not be willing to wait for reasoned judgment and wise experience to prevail.
The problem is that the parties are too polarized. They distrust each other too much to agree to a big-enough spending-cut plan. Voters likely will not be satisfied with the actual changes they see.
But there is an alternative: putting in place a new process that will force changes in law if deficit targets are not met over the next decade.
Such a plan would spread the burden over a number of years and increase the chance of meaningful deficit reduction. Although the full results will not be felt immediately, progress toward the goal of fiscal discipline can be plotted and verified. Voters might be willing to accept that as a solution if the leaders step out together to explain it clearly and concisely.
“Trigger” should be a word we hear more from lawmakers and the president in the coming weeks. The new process should trigger real cutbacks across the board in government spending if deficit targets - as a percentage of the gross domestic product - aren’t reached by certain dates.
The American people might not be entirely happy. But they probably will be satisfied enough to say no to policies that threaten rather than enhance their futures.
Much is at stake. Unless Republicans and Democrats are able to assemble such a package - one they both can live with - presidential candidates and voters alike will become radicalized. Then, who knows what the result could be? In all likelihood, it will not be good for anyone.
Jeffrey H. Birnbaum is a Washington Times columnist, a Fox News contributor and president of BGR Public Relations.
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