The 2010 census report coming out Tuesday will include a boatload of good political news for Republicans and grim data for Democrats hoping to re-elect President Obama and rebound from last month’s devastating elections.
The population continues to shift from Democrat-leaning Rust Belt states to Republican-leaning Sun Belt states, a trend the Census Bureau will detail in its once-a-decade report to the president. Political clout shifts, too, because the nation must reapportion the 435 House districts to make them roughly equal in population, based on the latest census figures.
The biggest gains will be for Texas, a GOP-dominated state expected to get up to four more House seats, for a total of 36. The chief losers - New York and Ohio, each projected by nongovernment analysts to lose two seats - were carried by Mr. Obama in 2008 and are typical of states in the Northeast and Midwest that are declining in political influence.
Democrats’ problems don’t end there.
November’s elections put Republicans in control of dozens of state legislatures and governorships, just as states prepare to redraw their congressional and legislative district maps. The process is often brutally partisan, and Republicans’ control in those states will enable them to create districts to their liking.
The combination of population shifts and election results could make Mr. Obama’s presumed re-election campaign more difficult. Each House seat represents an electoral vote in the presidential election process, giving more weight to states that Mr. Obama would be more likely to lose in 2012. The states he carried in 2008 are projected to lose, on balance, six electoral votes to states won by his GOP challenger, Sen. John McCain of Arizona. That sets a higher bar for Mr. Obama.
“The way the maps have shifted have made Obama’s route to success much more difficult,” said Republican Party spokesman Doug Heye. He said the GOP takeover of several state governments on the eve of redistricting efforts was “a dramatic shift.”
Republicans now control the governor’s offices and both legislative chambers in competitive presidential states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Indiana, Maine and Wisconsin. They hold the governors’ chairs in other crucial states, including Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia and Iowa.
When Mr. Obama carried those states in 2008, most had Democratic governors who were happy to lend their political operations to his cause. Now he will run where governors can bend their powers against his administration’s policies and his campaign’s strategies.
Democratic Party spokesman Brad Woodhouse said his colleagues are aware of the challenges they face, “but we are putting a plan in place to maximize our opportunities, minimize potential setbacks and ensure that the process in each state is fair and done in accordance with the law.”
The Democrats’ few bright spots include California and Illinois, where they control the legislatures and won hard-fought races for governor last month.
Of course, any number of things can happen before the 2012 elections, and Mr. Obama and other Democrats may come roaring back. Republicans might help them by pushing their luck and trying to draw more GOP-leaning House districts than the elections of 2012, 2014 and beyond will support.
State politicians use detailed, computer-generated data on voting patterns to carve neighborhoods in or out of newly drawn districts, tilting them more to the left or right. Sometimes they play it safe, quietly agreeing to protect Republican and Democratic incumbents alike. But sometimes the party in control will gamble and aggressively try to reconfigure the map to dump as many opponents as possible.
“The danger you run is trying to be too clever and cutting those margins too thin,” said Tim Storey, a redistricting authority for the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures.
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