Charting the market: Some in Md. bouncing back

Even though sales are down and homes are selling more slowly than they did in the spring, a few jurisdictions are showing some improvement.

Two counties in Maryland recently have begun to bounce back after the price reductions and slow sales climate of recent years.

In 2007 and 2008, prices fell hard in Prince George’s and Charles counties, as they did in many other jurisdictions. In Virginia, we saw a lot of buyer activity last year that pushed prices back up and lowered the time it takes to sell a home.

Most of Maryland did not fare as well in 2009. While Montgomery County did begin to bounce back around the same time as the Virginia side, this summer we are seeing similar trends in Prince George’s and Charles counties.

Time-on-the-market stats are dropping, sales chances are up, and prices have stopped falling. July’s sales prices in Charles were the highest they’ve been all year.

That’s not what we’re seeing in Virginia. Although buyer interest on the Virginia side is still measurably higher than in Maryland, it is dropping in counties such as Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William.

Looking at the region’s market overall, sales chances fell back a little, to 19 percent. So the past three months have really been about the same when it comes to buyer competition - there’s been much less of it than there was in the spring.

Sales chances are calculated by dividing a month’s sales figures by the inventory on the last day of the month, resulting in a percentage. A figure below 20 percent indicates a buyer’s market. Higher figures mean we’re in a balanced market or a seller’s market.

Although we may see some continuation of the Maryland-Virginia trends mentioned above, we won’t see a lot fireworks. I expect inventory to remain relatively high while sales slow into the fall and the winter.

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The statistics in this story reflect a metropolitan area that includes the Maryland counties of Montgomery, Prince George’s, Anne Arundel, Howard, Charles and Frederick; the Virginia counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania and Stafford; the city of Alexandria, Va.; and the District.