Wanted: Iraqi patriots

For the Iraqis to succeed at democracy. they need to do three basic things:

(1) Create a functional multicultural state, federal or otherwise.

(2) Institute or enable some fundamental social reforms.

(3) Work out a formula or policy for the division of oil revenues.

Is it all that hard? Even if it might be, don”t they understand that if they are unable to do these things, we”ll soon bring our troops home and their country will sink into the despair of an all-out religious war? How can they not see this?

Big surprise: They understand this only too well. Accordingly, you might ask: If they know the risks of failure, why don”t they just get going and get these things done? Seems a simple enough question and one that has occurred to most of us who watched this situation wobble out of control over the last few years.

So, what”s the basic problem there? Actually, there are at least five basic problems:

* The various leaders have all seen versions of this same instability before and are hedging their bets — they all have contingency plans for political and economic survival in the event of our failure. Most have their secret offshore money, their escape plan to the villa in the South of France, the kids in Swiss schools, etc. And these options are every bit as attractive to them — maybe even more so — than some yet undefined “democratic Iraq.”

In short, the various factional leaderships have never been convinced democracy will eventually prevail and are probably even less sure of it now. This has created its own inertia and has become a significant force in thwarting our basic strategy in Iraq. It”s the malaise that probably most affects our day-to-day success or failure there: In short, if it often looks as if they don”t care how it turns out, they may not.

* No matter what they say, leaders of the larger, more cohesive factions will oppose a unified Iraq because it can only weaken their status, power base and their future opportunities for ultimate control. And, many of them now believe — more than ever — that they are going to get all the spoils (read oil) and be able to kill off or isolate the other competing groups. We shouldn”t be surprised about these intractable attitudes: Compromise has never been a part of politics in the Middle East and it”s not about to start in Iraq.

* Mafia-like corruption is an embedded way of life in Iraq and the Middle East. Do we really think that local potentates will forgo their traditional “cut of the action”, tribal preferences and other kinds of tribute in the name of democracy?

* Widespread ignorance on a colossal scale, especially in the vast rural regions, is a huge factor that works against a unified, multicultural and modern Iraq. While seen and understood by anyone who has ever lived in or been to the region (ask a returning GI or Marine for your own firsthand report) most Americans haven”t a clue how backward most of the region is: These are people who perform basic human hygiene with one hand and eat with the other.

* Probably most unsettling to Americans is that there don”t appear to be any true patriots among the Iraqis — at least, patriots have not emerged nor identified themselves so far. There are serious risks: Those who may have thought about patriotism would be targeted for assassination by the factional leaders, whether the factional leaders were “good guys” or “bad guys.” This is because a true patriot — especially with a sizable following — would be a huge threat to those factional leaders now hedging their bets for personal advantage.

In sum, the Iraqis don”t seem to have their hearts in it. And, it really doesn”t matter so much that democracy is what we want for them. They must have their hearts in it or they will fail at it. Finally, as sad a proposition as it may be for us, we may have to understand — and accept — that they just don”t have it in them.

Daniel Gallington is a senior fellow at the Potomac institute for policy studies in Arlington, Va.