House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s emergence as an unrivaled force in Republican Party fundraising has put the 57-year-old lawmaker from California on a glide path to the speakership, provided his party sweeps the November midterm elections.
Mr. McCarthy has shattered House Republican fundraising records by bringing in $104 million to date in this cycle. In the first four months of the year alone, Mr. McCarthy has raised more than $31 million for his party’s efforts to retake the House majority.
His fundraising prowess has helped put House Republicans in a strong position to hit their target of 72 more seats. It also has solidified Mr. McCarthy’s status as the speaker-in-waiting.
“I think maybe even six months ago, there was some thought of ‘Well, is it going to be Kevin?’ but I think now the die is cast,” said former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, who served as House Republican whip throughout the 1980s. “He’s going to be the leader and hopefully and probably the speaker, and raising these funds is helpful for him.”
Mr. McCarthy raises money through several political entities, including his congressional campaign committee and an associated leadership PAC. He also raises money through several joint fundraising committees, including Take Back the House 2022 and the McCarthy Victory Fund.
Most of Mr. McCarthy’s haul in the first four months of this year, roughly more than $21 million, was through Take Back the House. The group’s top donors, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, come from the finance, real estate, energy and gambling sectors.
Take Back the House’s biggest donor is the Texas-based Dimensional Fund Advisors. Individuals employed by the investment giant donated more than $1.5 million to the PAC last year. Dimensional co-founder Rex Sinquefield, an advocate of tax reform and charter schools, gave Take Back the House $777,700 in September alone.
Apart from big donations, Mr. McCarthy’s political operation generated nearly 173,000 donations through its digital and direct mail programs in the first four months of the year. The average donation was roughly $25 per individual, and contributions came from across the country.
Money, in part, is why no serious challenge has emerged to Mr. McCarthy’s quest for the speakership. Political strategists say Mr. McCarthy closely resembles another Californian prized for filling campaign coffers: Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
“Certainly, fundraising is the primary function that makes Pelosi, as the speaker, so valuable,” said Colin Strother, a Democratic Party political strategist. “Most Democrats are in safe districts and do not prioritize fundraising. The rest are in the swing districts and can’t afford to raise money to give away to the [various party organizations]. So you need a speaker who can go do the dirty work and put the money together.”
Mr. McCarthy appears to have internalized the lesson. The minority leader is traveling the country to raise money for candidates and groups working to build a Republican majority.
“The energy and enthusiasm for Republicans to take back the House has never been stronger,” Mr. McCarthy said in a statement. He said the donations “will help ensure our candidates have the resources necessary to compete and win this November.”
“Our nation is suffering greatly under the Biden-Pelosi regime and the American people deserve better,” he said.
In the past four months, Mr. McCarthy has transferred more than $12 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm for House Republicans. That is on top of the $2.3 million that has gone to various state Republican parties.
Overall, Mr. McCarthy has sent nearly $40 million to the NRCC and other Republican groups this cycle. The money is not only increasing the chances that Republicans will retake the House but it’s also padding the number of votes Mr. McCarthy will get to become speaker.
“If the leader, who hopes to be speaker, has helped you raise money or made significant contributions to your campaign, you appreciate it and remember it,” Mr. Lott said. “There’s no question about it.”
The situation is a far cry from the California Republican’s first attempt to seize the gavel. In 2015, Mr. McCarthy was seen as the hands-on favorite to replace Speaker John A. Boehner.
His hopes were dashed when nearly two dozen members of the House Freedom Caucus moved to block his ascension. The maneuver forced Mr. McCarthy to shelve his ambitions, paving the way for House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul D. Ryan to become speaker.
This time, the political environment is different. Republicans are generally united around issues such as immigration, the economy and Mr. Biden’s efforts to combat COVID-19 and climate change.
Mr. McCarthy has helped lead the charge among House Republicans on each of those topics, smoothing ideological divisions and fostering unity. He also has worked to include Freedom Caucus stalwarts such as Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio when shaping the party’s midterm agenda.
“When you actually run on a platform, ‘Here’s what we care about, here’s what we’re going to do,’ … the American people care about that,” Mr. Jordan said at a recent Republican retreat. “That will help keep the team together and accomplishing what we told the people we were going to do when we ran for the job, [is] the reason why they’re going to put us in the majority and make Kevin [McCarthy] speaker.”
Mr. McCarthy’s conciliatory, big-tent approach might make him speaker, but it’s not enough to ensure he can foster the unity needed for unruly Republicans to govern.
Former Republican speakers learned the hard way.
Mr. Boehner consistently struggled to get hard-line Republicans to support government funding bills and was frequently forced to fight off motions from the floor to oust him from the leadership. Although Mr. Boehner usually wound up triumphant, the squabbles hampered bigger legislative initiatives and gave the impression that the majority was unmanageable.
“All of the turbulence created by internal divisions chips away at confidence in leadership and in the majority,” said a former top aide to Mr. Boehner who requested anonymity on the topic. “At first, it’s not so bad, but then the perception gets ingrained and then even small things become difficult to get across the finish line.”
As speaker, Mr. Ryan faced similar hurdles from Republican hard-liners, but to a lesser extent. He was able to unite House Republicans behind tax reform and failed attempts to repeal Obamacare but faced obstacles over funding the government and raising the debt limit without cutting spending.
Mr. McCarthy might not have those troubles, with money a defining reason.
Soaring inflation, massive government spending, the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan and President Biden’s sinking approval ratings have created a perfect political storm for Republicans. The last time such a confluence took place, in 2010, Republicans won 63 House seats on their way to the majority.
Mr. McCarthy and various Republican congressional groups say they believe they can flip 72 seats this cycle. Because redistricting has shrunk the number of marginal seats on both sides, most of the Republican opportunities are in districts and states that Mr. Biden won in 2020.
Some of the seats are even in deep-blue states such as Connecticut and New Jersey. Republicans are likely to win those seats with candidates running not as ideologues, but rather moderates focused on kitchen-table issues.
That could strengthen Mr. McCarthy’s hold on the speakership. Depending on how big the majority is in November, Mr. McCarthy might not have to appease hard-liners to govern.
He also is likely to have a contingent of freshman lawmakers facing tough reelection challenges in districts won by Mr. Biden who are unwilling to cross the speaker or his fundraising apparatus.
“If you misbehave, if you’re in the ’Hell No’ conference and make the leader’s job difficult, he could not be supportive of your reelection efforts,” Mr. Lott said. “That’s going to affect people’s conduct.”
• Haris Alic can be reached at halic@washingtontimes.com.
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