Sen. Marco Rubio has more than his presidential aspirations riding on the Florida primary — the 44-year-old’s entire political future will be shaped by the outcome of the contest.
A loss in his home state of Florida would cripple Mr. Rubio’s presidential aspirations and dent his chances of running for governor in 2018, which many political observers see as a fallback plan.
“It would be a major red flag and just show his overall weakness among Florida GOP voters,” said David Johnson, a Republican Party strategist.
Mr. Rubio has joked that he wouldn’t mind being commissioner of the National Football League if he moves away from politics. For now, though, he insists he will win the Florida primary Tuesday, when 99 delegates are up for grabs.
“We will win the state of Florida,” Mr. Rubio said this week. “We will beat Donald Trump there.”
Mr. Rubio is trailing Mr. Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in the chase for the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican presidential nomination.
The good news for Mr. Rubio is that a Monmouth University Poll released this week found he is gaining ground on Mr. Trump in Florida.
The bad news for Mr. Rubio, however, is that he trails Mr. Trump by 8 percentage points and is losing to him in the central part of the state, a key battleground in statewide elections.
“Sen. Rubio would receive a needed boost if he were to be victorious in Florida’s winner-take-all primary on March 15,” said Brian Graham, a Florida-based Republican Party strategist. “However, a loss in Florida would certainly be a significant blow to Rubio’s presidential campaign.
“Even if Sen. Rubio does not win the presidential race, his future here in Florida still looks bright,” Mr. Graham said. “With that said, he likely would face formidable challenges in a gubernatorial race from other talented Floridians such as Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater or Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam.”
Indeed, Mr. Putnam and Mr. Atwater are among the high-profile Republicans eying gubernatorial bids, suggesting there could be a crowded field of contenders looking to succeed Gov. Rick Scott at the end of his limited term.
“Rubio would have a lot of time to recover from this race, and he could raise a ton of money,” said Kyle Kondik, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “He would be formidable, but he wouldn’t be a lock.”
With strong support of the tea party movement, Mr. Rubio climbed onto the national stage in 2010 after chasing former Gov. Charlie Crist from the Republican Senate primary and then defeating the Republican turned independent in the general election.
Mr. Rubio, however, has lost some of his luster with grass-roots activists.
“Within the GOP establishment, Rubio is still fairly well-liked and supported,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida. “But among the rank-and-file Republicans, I am not so sure because we see Trump ahead of him. It makes you wonder.”
Mr. Jewett said grass-roots activists were turned off by the lead role Mr. Rubio played in pushing an immigration bill through the Senate in 2013 that many viewed as amnesty for illegal immigrants.
“Most of the tea party folks said, ’We didn’t expect this,’” Mr. Jewett said. “So I don’t know that he has the rock-ribbed support of the tea party folks anymore.”
Still, Hogan Gidley, who served as a spokesman to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s presidential campaign, said it would make sense for Mr. Rubio to take a stab at the governorship if he falls short in the presidential race.
“He doesn’t like the Senate. He is pretty open about that, and a logical step for him politically would be to try to gain some of that executive experience as the governor of a state,” Mr. Gidley said. “So it might be a good fit for him.
“It probably would be a good political move, too,” he said. “He obviously is a good politician, but he is like most one-term senators in that they are short on accomplishments.”
Mr. Rubio’s decision to vacate his Senate seat, meanwhile, has sparked a wide-open race for the Republican nomination among Reps. Ron DeSantis and David Jolly, Lt. Gov. Carlos-Lopez Cantera, former defense contractor Todd Wilcox, and developer Carlos Beruff.
The victor will face off against the winner of the Democratic primary, which is pitting Rep. Alan Grayson against Rep. Patrick Murphy, who recently received President Obama’s endorsement.
The outcome will help decide which party controls the Senate next year.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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