Sen. Marco Rubio is on the rise in the polls as the GOP field begins to shake up — but those on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire are questioning whether he has a plan to translate that growing interest into actual voters.
Party leaders and political analysts alike say Mr. Rubio, a first-term senator from Florida, has acquitted himself well in the debates so far, and is picking up steam as candidates such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush tumble.
But in Iowa, which kicks off next year’s primary season, there are still plenty of unanswered questions about whether he’s built the kind of manpower-intensive machine it takes to get voters to turn out on caucus night Feb. 1.
“People are starting to think more about Marco Rubio, no doubt, but there’s still a tremendous amount of folks who are undecided or could change their mind,” said Will Rogers, chairman of the Polk County Republicans, which covers Des Moines. “I’m not aware of what the Rubio game plan is for Iowa, they haven’t shared it with me. Personally, I don’t get the sense that it has been communicated with a lot of folks. I’m not sure they intend to come in and win Iowa, and that would be disheartening if that’s case.”
In a CNN-ORC poll released Nov. 6, Mr. Rubio comes in third in the Hawkeye State with 13 percent and 50 percent of would-be caucusgoers still undecided.
Craig Robinson, founder of the TheIowaRepublican.com blog. was also critical of Mr. Rubio’s organization on the heels of impressive debate performances and increased interest.
“What you’re not seeing is an aggressive ground game out of Rubio, and that causes a lot of Iowans to shake their heads,” Mr. Robinson said. “The reason it matters is, if Iowans could see they’re [Rubio campaign] aggressively out there and want to win, they’d gain even more momentum. Their approach has a lot of strategists [and] pundits scratching their head. We all think he should be doing more.”
Mr. Rubio has a small campaign staff of about four to five people in Iowa who are expected to organize the state’s almost 1,800 precincts, Mr. Robinson said. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, on the other hand, has organized in the 99 state counties and is beginning to build out coalition groups. Mr. Carson is also building out a significant ground game, Mr. Robinson said.
Mr. Bush has 10 paid staffers in two offices in the state, some specifically focused on religious and Hispanic supporters, according to an internal campaign a memo leaked to U.S. News & World Report.
However, Mr. Rubio contends it’s not the number of staffers you have that makes the difference — it’s the supporters.
“Really, a campaign is not about how many staffers you have, it’s about how many supporters you have. How many people turn out on the night of the caucus to support you, and that’s what we’re working to cultivate,” Mr. Rubio said at an October appearance in Orange City, Iowa, about his campaign’s strategy in the state.
State Sen. Jack Whitver, Mr. Rubio’s Iowa chairman, didn’t return calls for comment, but he did tell CNN their strategy is to run a lean campaign in the Hawkeye State, and it’s only a perception they’re not doing much in the state.
According to The Des Moines Register, Mr. Rubio has held 40 Iowa events over 22 days since November 2012, compared with Rick Santorum’s 178 events over 65 days, Mr. Cruz’s 71 events over 35 days and Mr. Carson’s 53 events over 24 days.
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, it’s not the senator’s ground game that’s lagging in the state, it’s his attendance, some party leaders complain.
“With Rubio, more people are talking about him than were before the last few debates,” said Bruce Perlo, the Grafton County GOP chairman in New Hampshire. “The Rubio group has put a lot of people on the ground. They have some extremely aggressive and competent people working for him, but I don’t know if it’s translated into anybody saying ’he’s my guy.’ Rubio hasn’t been here.”
And retail-politicking — that face-to-face time with potential candidates — is what New Hampshire voters are used to. Ohio Gov. John Kasich and businesswoman Carly Fiorina, who have both spent considerable amounts of time visiting the county, have the most buzz, Mr. Perlo said.
Still, Mr. Rubio has tripled his support in the Granite State according to the most recent Monmouth University poll, garnering 13 percent of the vote and placing third behind Mr. Trump and Mr. Carson. That’s up from 4 percent in September.
But Mr. Rubio has only spent 8 days in New Hampshire from August through Nov. 6, compared with 33 days for Sen. Lindsay Graham, 20 days for both Gov. Chris Christie and Mr. Kasich, and 16 days for Mrs. Fiorina, The New York Times said.
• Kelly Riddell can be reached at kriddell@washingtontimes.com.
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